The stallion-making Group 1 $2 million Victoria Derby (2500m) race headlines the action in Melbourne this Saturday, kicking off the Melbourne Cup Carnival at HQ.

Last weekend’s Vase winner Observer is the horse to beat in the 2025 VRC Derby field. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.

All eyes are on last weekend’s Moonee Valley Vase winner, Observer, who is the dominant favourite in the three-year-old staying showdown.

The Derby is one of three elite-levels on the weekend race card at Flemington as the countdown to Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup race heats up.

Victoria Derby betting at Ladbrokes is firmly led by the Ciaron Maher trained Observer at a short $2.10 on the quick back-up after his powerhouse Vase win at The Valley on Cox Plate Day.

The progressive Ghaiyyath colt was far too strong for his rivals, saluting as the odds-on favourite over 2040m, and looks cherry-ripe to go back-to-back on successive Saturdays up in grade and distance.

Improving on his lead-up third in the Caulfield Guineas in the Vase, Observer was given a bold front-running ride by Mark Zahra to lead by a big margin.

He held on to beat the fast-finishing Providence by a half-length.

Efficient (2006) was the last three-year-old to complete the Moonee Valley Vase – VRC Derby double, and there’s plenty of money coming for Observer to be the next.

He has drawn a dream in gate four, and the flying Zahra sticks aboard.

Providence and Caulfield Classic Form

The danger occupying the next line of betting at $6 and currently the only other single-figure contender is Providence.

The Chris Waller-trained Wootton Bassett colt was enormous in the closing stages of the Vase, running out of his skin to make up all the ground and finish second.

Providence improved out of sight on his lead-up eighth in the Gloaming Stakes in Sydney, relishing the Melbourne way of racing and extra distance in the Vase.

He just ran out of room to challenge Observer but could be the value to turn the tables up further in trip this weekend, aiming to hand Waller his fourth VRC Derby victory.

Craig Williams is a nice replacement for J-Mac in the saddle, with the only query being the wide gate (12).

Waller also saddles up one of the dark horses, the consistent Savisanta ($23.00), who comes via a third in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m) – a race that has produced a number of recent Derby placegetters.

The Geelong Classic winner, Azazel ($21) for Mark Walker, is also an underrated value runner in the Group 1.

Michael Dee sticks aboard the lightly raced son of former Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, who is bred to get the distance.

Another last start winner with genuine claims is Autumn Mystery ($12) for Rory Hunter, chasing a hat-trick.

A proven Flemington performer, he rose in grade last time out to salute in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m).

Five horses have completed the Caulfield Classic – Victoria Derby double, most recently Polanski (2013).

Blake Shinn continues associations, but their chances have been hampered by a nasty barrier 17 draw.

The best of the rest include the Tony & Calvin McEvoy trained Options ($13), the Vase third placegetter O’sheamus ($16), Nick Ryan’s Miewa ($18), and the early market mover Arabian Prince ($18).

The 2025 Victoria Derby is set to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:20pm (AEDT) on Saturday’s nine-race card.

2025 Victoria Derby Field & Barrier Draw

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