The rain predicted to arrive in South East Queensland on Saturday could see last start winner Kaepernick scratched from the Group 2 $175,000 MIRVAC QTC Cup (1300m) at Eagle Farm.
Co-trainer Michael Hawkes said that Kaepernick races below par on rain affected tracks and it would be fruitless to run the four year old if the rain arrived on que.
The Bureau Of Meteorology is forecasting showers on Thursday and Friday ahead of a major rain event on Saturday that could deliver up to 80mm of rain across the Brisbane region.
“The horse looks fabulous and he worked enormous on Tuesday. He is going the right way, but unfortunately the weather might beat him. He’s just not the same horse on rain-affected ground,” Hawkes told The Courier-Mail.
Kaepernick has had one run back from a spell for an impressive two and a quarter lengths win in the Listed $140,000 Arrowfield Ortensia Stakes (1100m) at Scone on May 14 and Hawkes admits that it wouldn’t be an ideal Stradbroke Handicap preparation if he were not to run on Saturday.
“It’s not the ideal preparation and it would make it very hard for him (if he misses a run on Saturday),” Hawkes said,
Kaepernick is number sixteen in the order of entry for the Group 1 $1.5m AAMI Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm next week and if he misses a run this weekend because of a wet track, it would be four weeks in between runs heading into the major Winter Carnival sprint.
Kaepernick is currently the $3.50 favourite at Ladbrokes.com.au for the QTC Cup and if he were to come out, it would totally reshape the betting.
While in Stradbroke Handicap betting Kaepernick is rated as a $13 chance.
The Gerald Ryan trained Spill The Beans is the second pick at $6 just ahead of last start BRC Sprint winner Snippets Land at $6.50 with Target In Sight and Perfect Fit sharing the next line of betting at $9.
QTC Cup market order at Ladbrokes.com.au: $3.50 Kaepernick, $6 Spill The Beans, $6.50 Snippets Land, $9 Target In Sight, Perfect Fit, $11 Eloping, $14 Stratum Star, $17 Trubia, $18 Sure And Fast, $19 Sacred Star, $21 Steel Zip, $31 Office Bearer, $67 Liberation.