The 2015 Australasian Oaks odds of Ungrateful Ellen have shortened dramatically since the final field was released earlier this week and the promising filly is into a quote of $9 to take out the Group 1 event at Morphettville on Saturday.
Ungrateful Ellen was available at as long as $26 when the Australasian Oaks betting market was released on Tuesday afternoon, but there has been a consistent surge of support for the daughter of Grey Swallow and she is now set to start the race on the fourth line of betting.
The three-year-old is only bringing modest form into the Australasian Oaks after finishing third behind Swiftly Red in the Andy’s Earthmovers Handicap (1400m) at Bendigo on April 2 and returning to winning form in the ANZAC Centenary Cup (1600m) at the same venue on April 16, but Smerdon told Racing Ahead that the filly can be more than competitive in the Group 1 effort based on her performance in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m) during the 2014 Spring Racing Carnival.
“I think she is a bit of sleeper,” Smerdon said.
“If you go back to her spring form, Melbourne Cup Day from a bad barrier she went back and got caught in traffic a couple of times and arguably was unlucky, so we went to the Sandown Guineas and in another two or three strides she runs third.
“She is definitely a better horse this time around and it is the first time that she has got to a trip where we think she will be effective.
“She is going to get a long way back from that draw obviously, but if it is genuinely run I think she can be competitive.
“Her main goal is the South Australian Fillies Classic over 2500 metres.”
Ungrateful Ellen has been a clear market mover in the 2015 Australasian Oaks betting market with Ladbrokes, but her stablemate Fontein Ruby remains on top of betting at a quote of $3.60 from Vinery Stud Stakes winner Fenway ($4.60), WATC Derby winner Delicacy ($8) and Chris Waller-trained Wine Tales ($9).
Smerdon is chasing his first win in the Australasian Oaks after previously missing the placings with Every Faith (ninth in 2014), Rezoned (11th in 2014), Red Typhoon (eighth in 2012), Gratis (ninth in 2008), Lolita Star (seventh in 2001), Purbright (last in 1998) and Spanish Gem (sixth in 1992).