This Saturday, November 2, the Flemington racing tip the punters are chasing is that for the 2013 Victoria Derby result and which of the smart three-year-olds in the field for the Melbourne Cup Carnival classic will take out the lucrative $900,000 first prize.

History shows Complacent has the form to win the Victoria Derby. Photo: Steve Hart.

Set to run as Flemington Race 6 on a nine event program at 3:00pm (AEST), this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) attracted an above capacity field of acceptors.

Sixteen are guaranteed a start while two others, Cadillac Mountain and Empire Rock, need a withdrawal to make the starting line-up on Saturday.

Victoria Derby betting continues to be led by the John O’Shea-trained Savvy Nature who sits top of the markets at $4.60.

The form is certainly there for the son of Savabeel who, like two of the past three Victoria Derby winners, ran in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) in Sydney before having their final lead-up run in Melbourne.

They were third in the Sydney feature at Randwick and then strutted their stuff at Moonee Valley last Saturday to score a most impressive three length win in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2050m), the same race that produced the 2011 Derby champ Sangster.

The easing $6 second elect in the Victoria Derby odds is then Peter Snowden’s Spring Champion Stakes winner Complacent who runs in Melbourne for the first time this Saturday.

A promising Authorized colt, Complacent twice beat Savvy Nature home in New South Wales but is no longer fancied to make it three from three after drawing barrier 16 for the latest rematch.

Others in the Victoria Derby mix getting some love from the punters are then last start Norman Robinson Stakes winner Polanski ($6) who is looking to become the fifth to win from barrier one since 1983 and Complacent’s stablemate San Diego ($7) who ran second to Polanski last start.

So is the winning Victoria Derby tip to back these shorties in the market?

History tells us that an upset Victoria Derby result is not uncommon.

Last year the Anthony Cummings-trained Fiveandahalfstar won as a $41 outsider, the sixth time in a row the favourite was defeated.

Those that love real roughies will also be looking back to the 2008 Victoria Derby result when Rebel Raider won as a $101 chance.

This year there are plenty of genuine hopes with real claims at double figures including Spring Champion Stakes runner-up Criterion ($10), Snowden’s last start Geelong Classic runner-up who has form up to 2200m Tupac Amaru ($18) and third in that same lead-up Throw The King who is at Rebel Raider’s odds ($101).

To help you select this year’s Victoria Derby winner below we take a look at the form facts and historical stats to narrow it down until only one is left standing.

• Only one Victoria Derby winner (Redding, 1992, Moonee Valley Vase 4^th) since 1986 ran worse than third in their final lead-up – #5 Dragon, #7 Honey Steel’s Gold, #8 Tips And Beers, #13 Thunder Fantasy, #14 Surging Wave, #15 Famechon, #16 Bring Something, #17e Cadillac Mountain all out

• No Victoria Derby winner (in the past 30 years) has jumped from barriers three and 16 – #11 Pinstripe Lane (3) out; if only one emergency comes out #9 Epic Saga (17) will move into 16 and if both come out #5 Drago (18) gets the gate

• Only two Victoria Derby winners since 2001 (Benicio, No. 9 in 2006 and Fivenadahalfstar, No. 6 in 2012) have won wearing a saddlecloth number higher than 4 – #6 San Diego, #9 Epic Saga, #10 Tupac Amaru, #12 Throw The King and #18e Empire Rock ruled out

• Victoria Derby favourites have lost the past six editions of the race – this year’s favourite #3 Savvy Nature out

• That leaves a Victoria Derby trifecta of – #1 Criterion, #2 Complacent and #4 Polanski

• Three of the past four Victoria Derby winners ran in the Spring Champion Stakes – #4 Polanski didn’t run in it this year ruling them out

So do you back the winner or the runner-up out of that race to win?

Fiveandahalfstar was the 10^th last-start winner to win the Derby since 1986.

The last horse to win the Spring Champion Stakes – Derby double meanwhile was Monaco Consul in 2009.

Complacent however boasts the highest win (60%) and place (100%) rate of the field so we will take them at their easing price.