Pick the Cox Plate Winner

Today the hot Moonee Valley tip all punters are after is that for the 2013 Cox Plate result and which of the 14 horses in the field for Australasia’s weight-for-age championship will bring it home in the last this afternoon.

Super Cool

Historically Super Cool is the best Cox Plate 2013 bet for this afternoon. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Not scheduled to jump until 5:40pm (AEST) as Race 10 in Melbourne, this year’s $3 million Group 1 W.S. Cox Plate (2040m) originally drew 15 final acceptors.

With a capacity field of 14 however the sole emergency Shamus Award earned a call-up after the shock scratching and subsequent retirement of Mark Kavanagh’s queen Atlantic Jewel.

Cox Plate betting was thrown wide open with the withdrawal of the hot favourite and there’s a log jam of four gallopers fighting for the punters’ favouritism.

Currently winning the battle of the odds at an easing $4.50 to be this afternoon’s Cox Plate winner is the Murray Baker-trained It’s A Dundeel.

Looking to go back-to-back for the Kiwis following the success of Ocean Park 12 months ago the High Chaparral four-year-old hasn’t raced since defeating Atlantic Jewel in her only career loss in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Flemington on September 21.

His main dangers then look to be from the Darren Weir-trained Puissance De Lune in barrier seven with Ben Melham replacing last year’s suspended Cox Plate winning hoop Glen Boss, the Gai Waterhouse-trained import Fiorente and Peter Snowden’s Caulfield Guineas winner Long John.

So will one of these shorties in the Cox Plate markets be the winner of race 10 today?

Or is there an upset Cox Plate result on the cards from a double figure outsider including Turnbull Stakes winner Happy Trails, last year’s Melbourne Cup hero Green Moon who is just now winding up or Kavanagh’s other hope Super Cool?

To help pick this year’s Cox Plate winner from the mix let us take a look at some historical facts and stats on the race and narrow it down.

  • No Cox Plate winner (since 1979) came off a break of longer than 21 days – #1 Green Moon, #5 Side Glance, #10 Mull Of Killough and #11 It’s A Dundeel out
  • No Cox Plate winner (in the past 30 years) has jumped form barrier 14, 12, or 8 – #3 Fiorente and #4 Foreteller now also come out
  • Since 2003 six double figure horses have won the Cox Plate – other single-figure hopes #8 Puissance De Lune and #14 Long John out of the mix
  • Only Cox Plate winner since 1979 to win the Cox Plate third-up was Fields Of Omah (2003) – #7 Rekindled Interest now out of contention
  • Three-year-olds have only won 19 times over the years and if Pierro couldn’t get it done last year can’t see one getting up here – #15 Shamus Award was the other 3YO left
  • Seven Cox Plate winners since 2000 contested the Memsie Stakes in the lead-up – of those left #9 Masked Marvel didn’t run in the Memsie
  • That leaves three horses – #2 Happy Trails, #6 Seville and #12 Super Cool
  • Four-year-olds have the best record in the Cox Plate with 26 wins – that leaves the only remaining one of that age #12 Super Cool to win the Cox Plate

So Kavanagh may have lost Atlantic Jewel but he could still have the 2013 Cox Plate winner in his stables with Australian Cup champion Super Cool looking for their second Group 1 win.

About The Author

Lucy Henderson

Lucy is an experienced horse racing journalist that has been a crucial member of the horseracing.com.au team for the better part of a decade. She has taken great delight in covering champion mares Black Caviar and Winx throughout their careers and always has a soft spot for a winning filly.

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