Leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller has revealed that he does not think Brazen Beau can win the 2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.
Brazen Beau stamped himself as one of the best three-year-olds in the country when he took out both the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on October and the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) at Flemington on Victoria Derby Day during the 2014 Spring Racing Carnival, but will be taking on older horses for the first time this weekend.
Jockey Craig Williams revealed this morning that he was bullish about the chances of Brazen Beau in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and while Waller is happy with the condition of the I Am Invincible colt heading into the Group 1 event, he feels that the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington on March 14 is a more winnable race for the valuable stallion prospect.
“Gee it is a good race,” Waller said of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
“He had a jump out eight days prior to this race on Saturday and he just followed them around, but he did enough for me.
“I don’t think that he can win on Saturday, but he is a good horse and you shouldn’t underestimate good horses.
“I think that the Newmarket will really suit him in three weeks’ time and he could surprise us, he is a very good horse.”
Three-year-olds had an excellent record in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes during the 1990s and early 2000s and the likes of Schillaci (1992), Keltrice (1994), Gold Ace (1996), General Nediym (1998), Isca (1999), Testa Rossa (2000), Choisir (2003) and Regimental Girl (2004) were all successful in the race, but recent history is against Brazen Beau as no three-year-old has won the race since champion stallion Fastnet Rock in 2005, while Zeditave (1989) is the only horse to win the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes in the autumn after taking out the Coolmore Stud Stakes the previous spring.
Despite the concerns of his trainer, Brazen Beau has been one of the best backed runners in the 2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes betting market with Ladbrokes and is currently available at a quote of $5, while undefeated sprinter Deep Field ($2.30) remains a narrow favourite from four-time Group 1 winner Lankan Rupee ($2.50).
Brazen Beau will be Waller’s second ever runner in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes after Shellscrape finished third behind Nicconi and Wanted in the 2010 edition of the race.