The Peter Moody’s stable concern that Rothera may not back up after eight days in Sunday’s Listed $150,000 Ballarat Cup (2200m) has little validity.
But the bigger concern is whether the son of Tobougg will run out a strong 2200m.
TABsportsbet have the six-year-old gelding a $4.40 favourite after his good win in the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes (1800m) at Sandown Hillside last week.
Moody’s racing manager Jeff O’Connor believes Rothera will run out a strong 2200m.
O’Connor said Rothera had not backed up so quickly since joining the stable in September with all four races having been spaced a fortnight apart.
O’Connor said it was new territory for the stable to be backing Rothera up so quickly, so it was important he was “105 per cent”.
But a look at his past reveals Rothera, when in the hands of Ben Currie, has had a seven day back on three occasions.
And his score is a win, a second and an unplaced performance.
The latest occasion produced a win in March this year in the Listed Members Hcp (1600m) at Eagle Farm on a heavy track.
While Rothera has a love for wet ground he showed last Saturday he can win on dry as well.
That 1800m win was the furthest distance Rothera had raced and on Sunday he needs to up it by a further 400m with 59kg.
Rothera has won twice with 58kg but was unplaced in two starts with 59kg.
His best effort with 59kg was fourth in the Group 2 2010 Hollindale Stakes (1800m) at the Gold Coast beaten three and three quarter lengths by Metal Bender.
One would think this is a tad easier but can he carry it over the extra trip?
Eight of his Cup rivals have won at 2200m or over and another six have at least won at 2000m.
Rothera is some risk but obviously can’t be ruled out of Cup contention.
While Cup day is expected to be sunny, rain is expected in the large provincial town tomorrow.
Presently the track is a dead four. The rail will be in the true position.
|No||Last 10||Horse||Trainer||Jockey||Barrier||Weight||Hcp Rating|
|1||X891X79901||ROTHERA||Peter G Moody||Luke Nolen||8||59kg||104|
|2||5X060X9600||ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB)||Luke Oliver||Jamie Mott||2||58kg||102|
|3||07F2631XL8||TINSELTOWN (NZ)||Michael Moroney||Ms Lisa Cropp||10||58kg||102|
|4||3411X99273||PADDY O’REILLY (NZ)||Robert Smerdon||Craig Newitt||17||56.5kg||99|
|5||31488X7140||BOOM ’N’ ZOOM||Ken Keys||Lincoln Coffey||11||56kg||98|
|6||4956X00426||RED BUTTONS||Michael Kent||Dean Yendall||3||55.5kg||97|
|7||109X573702||DOMESKY||Michael Kent||Brad Rawiller||6||55kg||95|
|8||123X062420||FOXHAM||Tony McEvoy||Ms Michelle Payne||1||53.5kg||89|
|9||40135X4002||STOLE (NZ)||Brian Jenkins||Ben Melham||14||53.5kg||89|
|10||8X000X6450||CHARTREUX||David Hayes||Stephen Baster||7||53.5kg||86|
|11||X080X09035||APPREHEND||Tony Vasil||Jordan Mallyon (a)||16||53.5kg||85|
|12||3X2053X441||MUSICAL HIT||Ken Keys||Dwayne Dunn||12||53.5kg||85|
|13||79126X1519||SEAN BAILE MOR||Todd Balfour||Jake Noonan (a)||15||53.5kg||82|
|14||9890X56183||NIPTIOUS||Danny Curran||Craig Robertson||9||53.5kg||80|
|15||631X581033||ULUNDI||Pat Carey||Chris Symons||4||53.5kg||78|
|16||1X20160X18||NOBLE DESTINY||Todd Balfour||Thomas Sadler (a)||5||53.5kg||66|
|17||9353424333||DORSODURO||Kelvin Bourke||Jacob Rule (a)||13||53.5kg||64|