The 2014 Ranvet Stakes is expected to come down to a match race between Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel and leading form expert Dominic Beirne believes that there is very little between the two champions heading into the Group 1 event at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
Fiorente ($2.60) is currently a narrow favourite in 2014 Ranvet Stakes betting markets from It’s A Dundeel ($3.20) and Beirne thinks that the Melbourne Cup favourite deserves to be on top of betting, but told RSN this morning that, at this stage, he is not advocating a bet on either of the talented entires.
“I think that the market is entitled to have Fiorente as a fractional favourite over It’s A Dundeel,” Beirne said.
“If they ran to their best ratings Fiorente has a one length advantage on It’s A Dundeel and at their 2000 metres form they dead heat.
“On their run cycle, Fiorente is none from three third-up from a spell, while It’s A Dundeel is three out of three when second-up.
“Head-to-head they are one and one; Fiorente beat It’s A Dundeel in the Cox Plate, but he went into the race under a cloud, and It’s Dundeel beat Fiorente in the Memsie.
“If you can aggregate all of that then there is barely a struck match between the pair of them.”
Beirne said that he could not find a great deal of value in Ranvet Stakes betting markets, but believes that Carlton House is capable of running a big race when he makes his Australian Group 1 debut on Saturday.
Carlton House set an extremely quick early tempo when second behind Opinion in the Listed Parramatta Cup (1900m) at Rosehill Gardens on March 1 and Beirne is of the opinion that the Street Cry entire is getting close to his best European form that saw him finish second behind So You Think in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (2011m) during the 2012 Royal Ascot meeting.
“I expect Carlton House not to run as fast as he did last time; he had to stop last time, but it would have been a tremendously strong conditioning run,” Beirne said.
“His pace rating on the day indicates that he is getting close to his really strong European form.
“Whether he can win or not he can win in a Group 1 weight-for-age is problematic for the horse, but I do expect him to be in front for a long time.
“I am not recommending him for a win bet, but he will give a hell of a sight.”
Carlton House is currently available at 2014 Ranvet Stakes odds of $11 and has been the clear market mover in the betting market at Ladbrokes Australia.