Her rivals will need every bit of luck they can find to beat Mosheen this Saturday and after the favourite drew the outside alley there may be a glimmer of hope for them in The Vanity.
In reality though it is only an eight horse field and with Danny Nikolic on her back it’s hard to see Mosheen encountering too many problems.
The one query it does bring up is a question of tactics, is she ridden forward from the wide gate or left to run over the top of them?
She went forward and led all the way in the Crown Oaks but that was over 2500m so there’s a question mark on whether she’d still have the early toe to find the lead here.
That being said she’s clearly the best horse in the race so connections may not want to gamble on settling her towards the back against her normal racing pattern and risk running into traffic.
The most likely scenario is that Mosheen is pushed forward but from out wide but whether or not she finds the front will be determined by those inside her.
If a horse fights her for the lead Nikolic may be happy to settle two wide and rely on her class to carry her through.
In the event there was a scrap for the lead it’d spread out this small field anyway so she’d have no problems slotting in behind.
Running the trip isn’t going to be a problem so as long as she’s towards the front by the time they make the turn it’s hard to see anything running past her.
The top threat is probably Shopaholic and she’s drawn prime in gate one while Great Dame, winner of her past two, did well in three.
If you’re looking for a smokie Notice Received is unbeaten in two starts for Andrew Noblet and will carry Ben Melham from gate five after a big jump in grade.
The Vanity Field
|No||Last 10||Horse||Trainer||Jockey||Barrier||Weight||Hcp Rating|
|1||X3531261X1||MOSHEEN||Robert Smerdon||Danny Nikolic||8||57.5kg||105|
|2||3712X143X1||SHOPAHOLIC (NZ)||Danny O’Brien||Dwayne Dunn||1||54kg||78|
|3||4X11||GREAT DAME||Greg Eurell||Chris Symons||3||54kg||68|
|4||6X215||ANGEL OF MERCY||Gerald Ryan||Craig Williams||7||54kg||68|
|5||3X11X||CALINE||Peter Snowden||Kerrin McEvoy||6||54kg||70|
|6||11||NOTICE RECEIVED (NZ)||Andrew Noblet||Ben Melham||5||54kg||67|
|7||5X13||THE GOOD WIFE||Mark Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||4||54kg||62|
|8||–||SERAPHEE||Brian Jenkins||Michael Walker||2||54kg||–|