Leading racing analyst Daniel O’Sullivan does not have Set Square in his 2015 Caulfield Cup tips and he believes that she is poison odds in the Group 1 event at Caulfield this afternoon.
Set Square showed that she was a filly with plenty of promise when she took out the Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) in just her fourth race start at Flemington last year and she was set for the 2015 Caulfield Cup after she failed to fire in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill Gardens on March 28.
The Reset mare started her 2015 Spring Racing Carnival campaign with a close second behind Abidewithme in the Cape Grim Beef Plate (1400m) at Caulfield on August 29 and she was slightly disappointing in the Spring Is The Season Handicap (1700m) at Flemington on September 12, but her Caulfield Cup odds shortened dramatically after she finished third behind Preferment and Royal Descent in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 4.
O’Sullivan told Radio TAB that Set Square has been ticking over fairly ahead of the Caulfield Cup, but he believes that she requires an improvement of two lengths to have any chance whatsoever in the Group 1 event and he believes that she is one of the worst value runners in the race at her quote of $9.50.
“I think she is tracking ok, but to me she is the massive unders in the race,” O’Sullivan said.
“She has a peak on ratings about the 104, 105 mark and that is probably a two lengths behind the minimum standard that you will need to get in the finish here.
“While certainly going up to 2400 meters she could go to a career best and set a new mark, but she is drawn quite awkwardly and there is so much depth of competition around that winning mark that she faces a task to improve to that level and that just puts her in the battle with a few of the others.
“While it is not impossible for a horse to do that in a big race like this, I think that at around $9.50 she is poison odds and she is shorter than horses like Rising Romance and Snow Sky, who are established Group 1 performers over this short of trip.
“I think that she is terribly under the odds and should be more like $25 or $31 in this race.”
Mongolian Khan is currently available at 2015 Caulfield Cup odds of $5 with Ladbrokes and he is set to start the race as a clear favourite from Snow Sky ($8.50), Set Square ($9.50), Hauraki ($9.50), Fame Game ($10) and Rising Romance ($10).
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