Ratings expert Paul Daily has Lucia Valentina on top of his 2014 Caulfield Cup tips, but believes that The Metropolitan winner Junoob represents value at his current quote.
Lucia Valentina stamped herself as a clear Caulfield Cup favourite with her strong win in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and Daily told RSN this morning that the Savabeel mare clearly looks the best of the local chances based on that performance.
However, Daily said that Chris Waller-trained Junoob came out of the 2014 Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) with a very high rating figure after he recorded a tough win in the $400,000 race and he feels that the Haafhd gelding is worth a bet at his current 2014 Caulfield Cup odds.
“Lucia Valentina is certainly on the face of it the best horse in the race, barring what might take place with the internationals,” Daily said.
“It is had that stone bruise before its last start and certainly that was a setback.
“It held back our confidence in terms of betting that day, but it is the one I think in terms of the locals.
“Some of the others have some chances as well.
“Junoob was good and it was very big rating last start and he could be a bit of overs at the moment at the current price.”
Many racing experts consider the 2014 Caulfield Cup field as one of the strongest in recent editions of the race, but Daily believes that the field is slightly below the average standard of the modern Caulfield Cup.
Daily admits that he does not have a particularly good handle on the ability of international horses like Admire Rakti, Bande and Seismos, but said that both Japanese horses need to be respected because of their place in the 2014 Caulfield Cup betting market.
“It is probably a little bit below standard,” Daily said.
“A lot of it hinges around the imports and to get a guide on those we probably need to see a bit more.
“On the face value of it, the locals are a little bit below standard.
“You have to respect the market in terms of the internationals, but international horses that debut here over the mile and a half generally perform above market expectations.”
Lucia Valentina remains on top of 2014 Caulfield Cup betting markets at a quote of $4.40, while there has been plenty of support for Bande ($8) and Lidari ($13) in the last 24 hours.