There are two things that need to happen in the Group 1 $2.5m Caulfield Cup 2400m on Saturday for December Draw to win.
First is jockey Michael Rodd needs to position in the running line with cover from barrier 11 – the other is December Draw needs to run out 2400m.
Rodd would want to be in the first half of the field and let the son of Medecis and New York (IRE) ping in the way racing fans have become accustomed.
When a horse hasn’t raced over a certain distance there is no proof he can’t run it.
Breeding gives some indication, and that of December Draw suggests if he get 2400m it will be just.
Most of Medecis’s progeny win from 1400m to 1800m which is not surprising as he raced on ten occasions for four wins – seven of those starts were at 1600m and the rest were below – the best he did was win the Group 3 Prix de la Jonchere at Chantilly in 2002.
Trained in France by Criquette Head, he moved on for his final two starts to Richard Mandella in California who again just raced him at 1600m.
December Draw’s dam had an unspectacular career on the race track retiring a maiden but never racing beyond 160om.
Her family were predominantly 1600m horses but there is more stout breeding a few generations back in her dam’s family.
December Draw is her first foal and he is also clearly the best horse Medecis has produced.
Even the owners of December Draw, who bought him to one day win a Wagga Cup, have doubts he can get 2400m – trainer Mark Kavanagh says he will.
On Medecis’ dam side there is some staying lines that would push him out to 2200m.
If he can, the betting markets have it right.
But when a horse doesn’t run a trip, it is like they are running in quick sand once they hit the wall.