Smartform Racing’s Daniel O’Sullivan has Lucia Valentina, Lidari and Brambles on top of his 2014 Caulfield Cup tips and believes that the Peter Moody-trained duo represent good value at their current odds for the Group 1 event.
Lucia Valentina defeated Lidari and Brambles to take out the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 4, but the duo both meet the Caulfield Cup favourite better in the weights this weekend.
O’Sullivan told RSN that Lidari and Brambles have both improved at each race start during their 2014 Spring Racing Carnival preparations and said that both are overs at their current Caulfield Cup odds of $9.50.
“I think that the Peter Moody pair of Brambles and Lidari are good value,” O’Sullivan said.
“They were just beaten by Lucia Valentina in the Turnbull Stakes and Peter Moody has done an incredible job with both of them.
“Both horses have improved their performance rating up until last start and we know that Brambles has no problems going beyond 2000 metres and most importantly both he and Lidari are going to be up on the pace out of trouble.
“If it is only just even both of those horses are going to have plenty left coming around the turn and they can both give a good kick.
“I have them both at the $7 mark and I think they are both better value than that.”
While O’Sullivan feels that Lidari and Brambles are the two best value selections in the Caulfield Cup, he still has a high opinion of Lucia Valentina and said that she is another horse that has had an ideal preparation for the $3 million race.
O’Sullivan is confident that Kerrin McEvoy will be able to settle Lucia Valentina in a position just worse than midfield and he expects the Savabeel mare to be a factor in the Caulfield Cup finish.
“I think that the Turnbull is definitely the right form line and the figures out of that race were genuinely strong,” Moody said.
“Under the handicap conditions here that stacks up as the superior form line.
“I have Lucia Valentina at about the $5 mark and that is absolutely no knock on her, she has been building perfectly for this race and she was very impressive winning the Turnbull.
“We know that she will be just as well suited, if not better suited up to 1200 metres.
“That draw is quiet good for her style and she is far less likely to strike trouble than if she had drawn one to six.
“She is shorter than $5 now, but she may get out on the day and she deserves her position as favourite.”
Lucia Valentina ($3.8) remains a clear favourite in 2014 Caulfield Cup betting markets from Brambles ($9), Lidari ($9.50) and Admire Rakti ($10).