Caulfield Cup betting has Rising Romance over the odds

By: Mark Mazzaglia
October 18th, 2014

Jockey of the moment James McDonald considers New Zealand mare Rising Romance to be well over the odds in the latest Caulfield Cup betting.

Rising Romance is at healthy double figure odds for the Caulfield Cup. Photo by Steve Hart.

Rising Romance is at healthy double figure odds for the Caulfield Cup. Photo by Steve Hart.

Rising Romance and favourite Lucia Valentina have been trading blows since their three year old days back in New Zealand with the spoils evenly shared and McDonald feels that the gap in their pre post prices should be smaller than it is for today’s Group 1 $3m Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup (2400m).

“She’s been against the favourite before and if you line their form lines up, there’s only half-a-length, a length between them,” McDonald told

“One is paying $11 and the other is the odds-on favourite, I’m fairly confident I can overcome that.”

The market has changed slightly since with Lucia Valentina still dominating the betting at $4.40 while Rising Romance is at the double figure odds of $13.

Lucia Valentina has been the firm favourite since winning the Group 1 $500,000 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 4 while Rising Romance hasn’t won a race since beating Zanbagh and Lucia Valentina in the Group 1 $1m Seven News Australian Oaks (2400m) at Randwick during the Sydney Autumn Carnival.

McDonald is giving Rising Romance a great chance of figuring in the finish and she has the advantage of winning over Caulfield Cup distance in the Australian Oaks.

“She’s in with a live chance, obviously the gate’s not very good but she’s a Group 1 winner over the 2400 and she ticks a lot of boxes and the way the horses are dropping out like flies at the moment, makes our job easier,” McDonald said.

“We’ll come into 13 or 14, so there’s a few wider than me and she makes her own luck and she’ll be hard to beat.”

Ruakaka trainer Donna Logan will leave the riding tactics up to McDonald after not getting any favours at the barrier draw on Tuesday, coming up with gate seventeen in the original draw but will jump from fourteen because three of the four scratchings were drawn inside of her.

“Basically I’ve told James, you’ve just got to judge it when the gates open, I think you can plan all you like but nothing comes into perfection like that,” Logan said.

“Basically you’ve got to ride like you’re on the best horse in the race and work it out from there.”

“He’s won the Oaks on her in Sydney, he knows her ability and he’ll have a good form line on the rest of the horses in the field, so I couldn’t be happier having him on board,”

McDonlad is still on a high after winning last week’s Group 1 $1m BECK Caulfield Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield on Shooting To Win and would love to add the Caulfield Cup to his trophy cabinet.

“It’s a race that everyone wants to win; it’s one of the four majors in Australia, so to be on a live hope in the race is great,” he said.

Lucia Valentina and Rising Romance will be facing off again in the Caulfield Cup at level weights with two wins a piece from five meetings, with Lucia Valentina having the advantage in the Spring.

The two mares have met twice during the Spring Carnival with Rising Romance finishing fourth behind Lucia Valentina in the Group 2 $175,000 Tattersalls Club Tramway Stakes (1400m) at Randwick on September 6 and then they were sixth and seventh in the Group 1 WFA $350,000 George Main Stakes (1600m) at Randwick on September 20.

At her most recent start Rising Romance was run down by Moriarty when second in the Group 3 $125,000 APN Outdoor Craven Plate (2000m) at Randwick on October 4.

Latest Caulfield Cup market order: $4.40 Lucia Valentina, $9.00 Junoob, $9.50 Brambles, $10 Admire Rakti, $13 Who Shot Thebarman, Rising Romance, $18 Hawkspur, $21 Seismos, Moriarty, Stipulate, Big Memory, $26 The Offer.

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