Leading form analyst Daniel O’Sullivan has First Seal on top of his 2015 Vinery Stud Stakes tips and he believes that the talented filly still offers value at her current quote of $1.95.
First Seal started the Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on March 14 as an odds-on favourite, but she had a tough run in transit with 55.5 kilograms on her back and she was caught by Plucky Belle in the shadows of the post.
O’Sullivan told RSN that First Seal lost no admirers with her Coolmore Classic performance and he believes that the Fastnet Rock filly is far better suited under the set weight conditions of the Vinery Stud Stakes, with the professional punter more than happy to take the Vinery Stud Stakes odds currently on offer for the three-year-old.
“I have her around the $1.70 mark, so I think that $1.80 or $1.90 is a good price for her,” O’Sullivan said.
“She is clearly the best horse in this race and key point is that she is much better suited here at set weights against three-year-old fillies.
“Last start she was giving a stack of weight to those older mares when you look at it relative to weight-for-age and that is something that often escapes punters when you look at the weights at relative terms.
“We all saw that she was caught wide and just got run down, but I think that she will be fitter here and looks set to get an ideal run in what will be a slowly-run race.
“She has outstanding sectional ability and if she is on her game then it is very unlikely that anything is going to come from behind her to run her down.
“She is going to 2000 and her run in the Spring Champion last year was enormous.
“Panzer Division set a first section record at Randwick for that first section trip and she sat handy and was very, very game.
“I don’t think that there is any problem at all at 2000 metres and I think that the current price still offers a good edge for punters.”
Winx is currently on the second line of Vinery Stud Stakes and O’Sullivan believes that the Phar Lap Stakes winner is the only real danger to First Seal in the Group 1 event.
O’Sullivan said that the tactics used the Waller stable could prove key to the Vinery Stud Stakes chances of Winx, but he is confident that First Seal and Winx will fight out the finish at Rosehill Gardens tomorrow.
“I think that Winx is the only genuine danger,” O’Sullivan said.
“She found form last start with a very strong sustained finished over 1500 metres and she is perhaps going to improve a little bit up to 2000 metres here.
“If they can be a little positive early and end up in the right spot, I think those two will clear out from the others and settle down to fight it out.”
First Seal ($1.95) is currently on top of the 2015 Vinery Stud Stakes betting market with Ladbrokes and is a clear favourite from Winx ($6.50), Adrift ($8) and Set Square ($9.50).