Leading form analyst Daniel O’Sullivan has Dissident on top of his 2015 Orr Stakes tips, but he believes that the talented entire needs to improve significantly on his first-up effort to win the Group 1 event at Caulfield tomorrow.
Dissident stamped himself as one of the most talented horses in Australia when he won both the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) and Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) during the 2014 Spring Racing Carnival, but he was unable to replicate those performances when he finished third behind Mourinho in the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley on January 24.
O’Sullivan told RSN that he was very disappointed by the lackluster effort of Dissident in the Australia Stakes and he revealed that he cannot back the Sebring entire at his current Orr Stakes odds of $3.10.
“On his form from last preparation he would be anything from $1.60 to $1.90 in this race, however that last race he just didn’t look like the same horse,” O’Sullivan said.
“He lacked a turn-of-foot and his rating first-up was the lowest that he has achieved in his last four preparations and that includes preparations prior when he wasn’t anywhere near the level he found last autumn.
“It is very difficult to assess what he is going to do tomorrow.
“He could naturally improve, but is he going to go from what he did last start to something like we came to expect last preparation.
“When you get an assessment that is very sensitive to one individual runner and the wide range of performance that they could reach it makes it very tricky from a betting perspective.
“He probably needs to improve a good two or three lengths to have this race in the bag and he has a bit of a task ahead of him.”
While O’Sullivan is not confident about the chances of Dissident, he is unsure what horse in the race will be able to step-up to beat him and he feels that there are a number of winning chances in the 2015 Orr Stakes.
Mourinho beat Dissident in the Australia Stakes and O’Sullivan is happy to entertain the Peter Gelagotis-trained galloper again at his quote of $15, while he also believes that Entirely Platinum ($11) and Mouro ($14) are currently over the odds at their current prices.
“I think horses like Mouro, Mourinho and even Entirely Platinum offer a little bit of an edge there and there are any number of possible winners if Dissident is off his game,” O’Sullivan said.
“That’s what makes it an even more challenging race and this year, subject to what Dissident does, is potentially one of the lowest rating Orrs that we have seen.
“The winning mark is likely to be quiet low this year and that opens it up to any number of possible winners.”
Dissident ($3.20) is currently a clear favourite in the 2015 Orr Stakes betting market with Ladbrokes from Petrology ($6.50), Java ($8), Spillway ($11) and Entirely Platinum ($11).