Form expert Daniel O’Sullivan has Press Statement on top of his 2015 Caulfield Guineas tips and he believes that the talented colt should be an even money favourite in the Group 1 event at Caulfield tomorrow.
Press Statement stamped himself as a Caulfield Guineas contender when he won the Group 1 J.J. Atkins (1600m) during the 2015 Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival and he showed that he made the leap required to be competitive as a three-year-old when he finished second behind Exosphere in the Group 2 Run To The Rose (1200m) at Rosehill Gardens on August 29.
The Hinchinbrook colt had no luck in running whatsoever in the Group 1 Golden Rose Stakes (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on September 12 before he returned to winning form in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on September 26.
O’Sullivan told RSN that Press Statement has a clear ratings edge on the rest of the 2015 Caulfield Guineas field and he believes that the three-year-old fits the profile of a Caulfield Guineas winner perfectly.
“He comes into this race with a clear edge on his figures and he is really the only horse that has the ratings quality of a Caulfield Guineas winner,” O’Sullivan said.
“This race averages 106 over a number of years and he comes into this race with a well-established figure of 103.
“He is set for his target race here and assuming he gets the right run he is set to push towards that historical figure.
“The next group of horses are really all less than 100, which is very unusual leading into a Caulfield Guineas.
“The price on offer is more than acceptable.”
Price Statement’s Caulfield Guineas odds lengthened when he was allocated barrier 14 at the 2015 Caulfield Guineas barrier draw, but O’Sullivan is hopeful that the wide draw will not be an issue.
O’Sullivan said that history indicates that wide draws over a mile at Caulfield are not a large negative and he is confident that Press Statement has the turn-of-foot required to finish over the top of his rivals.
“The market is notably overreacting to the barrier draw,” O’Sullivan said.
“The stats over 1600 metres at Caulfield aren’t that bad for wide runners, they are only marginally inferior in terms of win rate and more notably the price that the horses offers for those horses makes them much more profitable.
“It is naturally a risk, but the reality is that on average these barriers aren’t a disadvantage.”
Press Statement is currently available at 2015 Caulfield Guineas odds of $2.90 with Ladbrokes and he is a clear favourite from Ready For Victory ($7.50), Dal Cielo ($10), Tulsa ($12), Tarzino ($13), Bassett ($13) and Bon Aurum ($14).
You can find the best odds for Press Statement and any other runner in the Caulfield Guineas with Ladbrokes, who are offering best tote or starting price +20% on every single race at Caulfield on Saturday.