Ratings expert Adam Blencowe has Angelic Light on top of his 2014 Winterbottom Stakes tips, but he believes that Godolphin sprinter Sidestep represents the best value in the Group 1 event at Ascot tomorrow.
Sidestep returned to racing with a credible eighth behind Terravista in the Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m) at Flemington on November 8 and Blencowe told RSN this morning that he believes that the Exceed And Excel can improve on that performance and feels that he is good value at his current Winterbottom Stakes odds of $7.
“Sidestep was only a length off Moment Of Change in the Darley Classic, blinkers go on and he looks open to more improvement than Moment Of Change,” Blencowe said.
“If you go back through a few of his old figures in the autumn there in Sydney he ran a cracking race in the Royal Sovereign there was visually really impressive running down Bounding and beating a few subsequent winners.
“If he does improve as you can predict off that Darley Classic run then I think that he is the one that is a little bit over the odds and on straight figures Bel Sprinter is a little bit over the odds at $11.”
Angelic Light has been a clear favourite in 2014 Winterbottom Stakes betting markets since the final field was released on Wednesday and Blencowe admits that the Holy Roman Emperor mare is the horse to beat in the Winterbottom Stakes after she beat Lankan Rupee in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes (1000m) at Moonee Valley on September 6 and finished a close second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at the same venue on October 24.
While Blencowe has Angelic Light on top of his Winterbottom Stakes selections, he believes that the five-year-old does not represent value at her current quote, but remains very confident that one of the four horses trained on eastern seaboard of Australia will take out the Group 1 event.
“I certainly have Angelic Light as the top pick and it does look like the eastern state horses hold most of the aces here and the locals are probably lacking as strong a defense as in past years,” Blencowe said.
“I think this year the eastern states horses have a fairly strong edge and I do think that Angelic Light is the top pick, but getting her down to that 2.7 is pretty hard work.
“I think that is the bottom of the price point where she should be and I have her marked 3.2 and I wouldn’t want to be taking any less than that in a race that is fairly competitive.
“She obviously has that really good Lankan Rupee form in the book, which looks fantastic, but that Manikato was a very funny race with Lankan Rupee overdoing it in front.”
Angelic Light is currently available at Winterbottom Stakes odds of $3 and is a clear favourite from Moment Of Change ($4.20), Sidestep ($7) and Magnifisio ($8).