Shamexpress is the 2014 William Reid Stakes tip for Dominic Beirne; with the leading form analyst confident that the 2013 Newmarket Handicap winner will start favourite in the Group 1 event at Moonee Valley tonight.
Samaready is currently favourite in 2014 William Reid Stakes betting markets, but Beirne believes that there is a big question mark over the two-time Group 1 winning mare after she failed to perform at her best in both the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Handicap (1000m) at Flemington on February 15 and the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at the same venue on March 8.
Beirne told RSN this morning that Samaready has been unable to replicate her winning performance in the Group 1 Moir Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley during the 2013 Spring Racing Carnival and believes that Shamexpress represents the best value in William Reid Stakes betting markets.
“The marketplace backing Samaready is really relying on that Moonee Valley form from the spring when she produced a world class rating,” Beirne said.
“She has been nowhere near that in three runs since and I have to favor Shamexpress.
“My own view is that Shamexpress will start favourite.”
The 2014 William Reid Stakes field does not feature much early speed and trainer Kris Lees has speculated that talented filly Thump may be forced to take up the running in the early stages of the race.
Beirne believes that the speed map for the race highlights a couple of serious issues for Samaready and he is confident that Shamexpress will get the run of the race from barrier seven.
“The whole thing depends on whether It Is Written crosses Samaready in the early parts of the race,” Beirne said.
“Samaready will need a lot of luck if that happens because I can picture Shamexpress putting Samaready into a pocket.”
Thump has been the best backed runner in the William Reid Stakes betting markets, following her strong win in the Group 2 Surround Stakes (1400m) at Warwick Farm on March 8, and is now available at a quote of $5.50.
Beirne said that he has a high opinion of Thump, but finds it difficult to back the filly at her current price after she started the Surround Stakes at a quote of $25.
“I’ve got a lot of respect for three-year-olds in this race and I have a lot of respect for fillies in this race,” Beirne said.
“I thought that she was a pretty good chance last time, but she was 25-1 in a Listed three-year-old race last time.”
Samaready is currently available at William Reid Stakes odds of $4, while Shamexpress is on the second line of betting at $5.