Adam Blencowe has Messene on top of his 2014 Warwick Stakes tips, but the leading form analyst admits that the Missile Stakes runner-up is no certainty to contest the Group 2 event at Royal Randwick tomorrow.
Team Hawkes revealed yesterday that they were unlikely to run Messene on a heavy track in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes (1400m) and are now leaning towards running the son of Lonhro in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield next weekend.
Messene opened as a clear favourite in 2014 Warwick Stakes betting markets and is currently available at a quote of $4.40, which Blencowe told RSN is great value if Team Hawkes opt to run the Group 2 winner tomorrow.
“The weather is obviously going to play some a huge role in who decides to line up and Messene is one that has to be touch and go to line up if it is wet,” Blencowe said.
“If the track does come up on the good side of slow and they do elect to run, straight up on the form I’ve got him shorter than he is there.
“If we do get a track to suit, I think that he is a fairly good winning chance and I have him marked 2.80.
“I think there is better than 7/2 available and I think that is a reasonable bet.”
Nine of the 11 runners in the Warwick Stakes field have won at Group 1 level, while Weary and Messene are both primed to break through at the highest level of racing during the 2014 Spring Racing Carnival, and Blencowe believes that the $175,000 event will be the a key form race for the rest of the spring.
“There are plenty of horses here that, if they run, are going to be interesting going towards the spring,” Blencowe said.
“It will be interesting to see the three-year-olds, who we certainly had rated down last season, but Dissident and Criterion were two of the better ones and we get to see just how they stack up against older horses for the first time on Saturday.
“I think it is an interesting race to watch going forward into the spring.”
Messene is currently locked in a battle for 2014 Warwick Stakes favouritism with Chris Waller-trained Sacred Falls, who has been backed from $6.50 into $4.40, while there has also been some support for talented mare Royal Descent ($5.50).