Leading form analyst Dominic Beirne does not have a specific 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes tip, but revealed that he is happy to ignore the current favourites for the Group 1 event at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
New Zealand Derby runner-up Rising Romance ($5), Kewney Stakes winner Solicit ($5) and Guy Walter-trained Zanbagh ($6) are all battling for favoritism in 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes betting markets, but Beirne does not believe any of the three represent value at their current price.
Beirne told RSN this morning that he has the betting market priced $7 is the field and has selected Suavito, Miss Mossman and Marianne as his 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes tips.
“I think that the market should be $7 and I don’t think that you should take less than that for any runner,” Beirne said.
“I am betting that one of these middle-pin horses is wrongly priced because I think that is where you are getting the value.
“The ones that I have zeroed on are Marianne, Miss Mossman and Suavito, all of whom I think should be around $8.”
Suavito is currently available at 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes odds of $11 and Beirne believes that she is a good chance of recording her maiden win at Group level after showing impressive improvement throughout her racing career.
The Thorn Park filly resumed with a third place finish in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on March 8 and was an unlucky second behind Marianne in the Listed Alexandra Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on March 21; with Beirne confident that the three-year-old can win the 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes if she replicates those performances tomorrow.
“I think that Suavito is one of the significant overlays in the race,” Beirne said.
“She is untested past a mile and she has a great pattern.
“In her form she has never come back in rating; her first five starts last preparation she advantaged each time and she did so in steps.
“If she repeats where she was in her last two starts this time in she is entitled to be a $6 chance.”
Suavito is currently available at 2014 Vinery Stud Stakes odds of $11, while Marianne ($12) and Miss Mossman ($13) are also available at double figure odds to take out the Group 1 event.