Leading horse racing analyst Daniel O’Sullivan has Puissance De Lune on top of his 2014 Turnbull Stakes tips and rates the popular grey a good chance of scoring his maiden Group 1 victory at Flemington tomorrow.
Puissance De Lune started his 2014 Spring Racing Carnival campaign with a slightly flat performance in the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on August 16, but produced an improved effort when third in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) and finished within a length of Dissident in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on September 13.
O’Sullivan told RSN this morning that Puissance De Lune profiles very well in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and he believes that the Shamardal entire will get an excellent run into the race when he jumps from barrier two.
“The horse that I favor to win the race is Puissance De Lune,” O’Sullivan said.
“He was very solid behind Dissident and we know that is probably the best form line going around at the moment.
“I think that he peaked a little on his run and fourth-up 2000 metres was his best run last preparation and it was in this race when he was a narrow second to Happy Trails.
“When you look at Darren Weir his runners first to third-up in town have only a ten and a half percent strike rate, but once they hit that fourth-up run and beyond his strike rate doubles to 21 percent.
“There is a clear pattern there that he is really a master of getting his horses to improve into their preparation and maintain peak form a number of runs in.
“I think that Puissance De Lune is nicely set-up here to reach a peak run and with the potential here to get a good run perhaps three pairs back that he is ideally positioned to win this race.”
Lucia Valentina is currently on top of 2014 Turnbull Stakes betting markets and Silent Achiever opened as favourites, but O’Sullivan said that he is happy to risk both mares at their current Turnbull Stakes odds.
O’Sullivan is worried about the hoof issue that has plagued Lucia Valentina over the last few days and believes that Silent Achiever would have to improve significantly on her Underwood Stakes effort to be any chance in the Turnbull Stakes.
“The horse I don’t especially like is Lucia Valentina,” O’Sullivan said.
“I think that little setback has to be some concern and she has a habit of getting a long way back in the field.
“She is going to be needing luck and I’m just not sure its figures are dominant enough to justify that price and I think that the race is far more competitive than what that price is suggesting.
“Also Silent Achiever, there is no doubting on its autumn runs that it could certainly win this race, but on what we have seen in its first two runs it really has the job ahead of it and has to improve a number of lengths.”
Puissance De Lune has been the market mover in the Turnbull Stakes betting market with Ladbrokes Australia and is into a quote of $6 to win the Group 1 event.