Form guru Daniel O’Sullivan has Lumosty on top of his 2014 Thousand Guineas tips and he believes that the talented filly is at her right odds for the Group 1 event at Caulfield tomorrow.
Lumosty started her 2014 Spring Racing Carnival campaign with a narrow second behind Afleet Esprit in the Listed Cap D’Antibes Stakes (1100m) at Flemington on September 13 before she was scratched from the Group 3 Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) at Caulfield on September 28.
Trainer Robert Smerdon opted to run Lumosty in a maiden at Sale on October 1 and he elected to give her a maiden opportunity at Group 1 level after she recorded a dominant nine lengths victory.
O’Sullivan told RSN this morning that the figures coming out of Lumosty’s victory in the maiden at Sale were very strong and he believes that the Fastnet Rock filly deserves her place as favourite in 2014 Thousand Guineas betting markets.
“She is definitely still the untapped horse in this race,” O’Sullivan said.
“We saw her behind Afleet Esprit two starts ago and that form has worked out particularly well.
“She missed the start there and then went to the maiden race and won that by nine lengths.
“The figures out of that race were very strong and she gives the impression that stepping up to 1600 metres is certainly going to suit her.
“She is the one that comes into this race more on an upward spiral than any other horse in the event.
“I think that her price is completely fair and if you happen to get much better than that on the day then she is certainly a worthy bet.”
Bring Me The Maid failed to fire in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, but trainer Peter Moody is hopeful that the talented filly can return to her best form in the Thousand Guineas this weekend and she remains one of the best backed runners in betting.
O’Sullivan is happy to risk Bring Me The Maid after her Thousand Guineas Prelude and revealed an interesting stat that suggests it is unlikely the Sebring can bounce back with a maiden win at Group 1 level.
“You have to risk her,” O’Sullivan said.
“If you look at last run she was there to run well, but you have to say that she was disappointing.
“It is very easy to think that you want to forgive a horse, but history shows that if you are not running particularly well in your lead-up then your chances of winning your target races are very minimal.
“From a punting prospective they are just horses that you want to avoid.”
Lumosty is currently available at Thousand Guineas odds of $4 and is a clear favourite from Go Indy Go ($4.80), Afleet Esprit ($5.50) and Bring Me The Maid ($7).