Leading form expert Adam Blencowe has named Essay Raider and Gregers as his 2014 The Goodwood tips, but believes that there are plenty of winning chances in the Group 1 event that will be run at Morphettville on Saturday.
There is currently very little between a number of different horses in the betting market for The Goodwood and Blencowe told RSN this morning that on Timeform figures that there is less than a pound between nine runners in the $500,000 race.
Blencowe said that this year’s edition of The Goodwood is not the sort of race in which you have a standout selection, but believes that Essay Raider represents good value at his current quote after recording an impressive win in the Group 3 McKay Stakes (1100m) at Morphettville on April 26.
“In a race like this it is impossible to say well this is the horse and bang it is the most likely winner and let’s all stack, I think that it is a race where you have to make a bit of a book with what you think are overlays,” Blencowe said.
“With that in mind I think that Essay Raider is a reasonable chance of winning it.
“His win last start was at good figures, they were down a little bit of Driefontein’s figures on the day, but I think that he is on an upward spiral.
“He ran career best figures there and I think that he is going to keep improving on into this.”
While Blencowe likes the chances of Essay Raider, he admits that The Goodwood has generally been an excellent races for mares; with Velocitea, Lone Rock, Black Caviar and Platelet all winning the race in recent years.
Robert Sangster Stakes winner Driefontein and popular filly Miracles Of Life have both been well-supported in betting, but the leading racing analyst said that he rates Gregers’ form in the lead-up to the Group 1 event.
“Mares have won four of the last four of these and they have a good record against their participation rate overall in the last twenty years,” Blencowe said.
“Three-year-olds have a good record as well and with that in mind I think that Miracles Of Life is a chance, but I would probably lean more the way of Gregers.
“I think that at three, she was obviously no match for Miracles Of Life at two, she has been slightly ahead of her and I think that Gregers is a genuine winning chance here.”
Driefontein ($7) remains a narrow favourite in The Goodwood betting market from Miracles Of Life ($7.50) and Platelet ($8), while Essay Raider ($9) and Gregers ($10) have both been well supported.