Adam Blencowe has Messene on top of his 2014 Memsie Stakes tips and the leading form analyst is confident that the talented gelding can record his maiden win at Group 1 level at Caulfield on Saturday.
Messene was entered for the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) after he was scratched from the Group 2 Warwick Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick last weekend and he will be having the second run of his spring campaign after finishing second behind Sweet Idea in the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on August 9.
Blencowe told RSN this morning that Messene still needs to step-up to win the Memsie Stakes, but he still believes that the Lonhro gelding is excellent value to be the strong field in the $400,000 race this weekend.
“I’m pretty keen on Messene, it is just that little nagging doubt that he is six and can he really take that step forward,” Blencowe said.
“His master figure at the moment isn’t actually ahead of these, in fact he is six pounds below Boban who is the highest rated horse in the race and a couple of pounds below Moment Of Change, but the way that he improved off his run second-up last prep when he obliterated a field including Weary and ran a good time figure.
“I think that there is a bit there and his first-up run was terrific I thought.
“I think that if he can take that step he is going to be pretty hard to beat here and there is value in the price.
“I have got him marked 2.80, so I am pretty keen to play in the market there.”
Boban has easily been the best backed runner in 2014 Memsie Stakes betting markets and he is now available at odds of $3.80 in the betting market for the Group 1 event.
Blencowe said that Boban is the highest rated horse in the Memsie Stakes field, but does not think that the Bernardini gelding maps well from barrier nine and rates Moment Of Change as the main danger to Messene.
“Boban just the way the race maps out is probably one that you want to take on,” Blencowe said.
“He is proven to be the most talented horse here, certaintly on deeds to date, so you have to give him plenty of respect, but the way that it all sets up makes it pretty hard for him to run his race here.
“A horse like Moment Of Change is the horse that all sets up for and I am pretty sure he will be the one that Messene has to beat.”
Sweet Idea is another runner that has been well supported in Memsie Stakes betting, while Moment Of Change has been the big drifter and is now out to $6 after opening as a $4.80 favourite on Wednesday.