2014 Melbourne Cup Tips: Araldo Could Surprise

By: Thomas Hackett
November 2nd, 2014

Update: Araldo is not in many peoples 2014 Melbourne Cup tips, but the imported stayer is capable of recording an upset win in the Group 1 event at Flemington this afternoon.

Araldo is the best outsider in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Araldo is the best outsider in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

The Mike Moroney-trained galloper will likely need a bit of luck in running in the Melbourne Cup after he was allocated the outside barrier on Saturday night, but the High Chaparral defied wide draws to run strongly in both the Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) at Royal Randwick and the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

Araldo looks as though he will relish the step-up to 3200 metres in the Melbourne Cup and he is sure to be suited by the long Flemington straight, which will give him the best possible chance to work home strongly and record an upset win.

He is currently available at 2014 Melbourne Cup odds to win and $7.50 to finish in the placings.

Update: My Ambivalent is not on top of the 2014 Melbourne Cup tips of Timeform’s Gary Crispe, but he believes that the talented mare is the best outsider in the race.

Crisp has an outstanding record in the Melbourne Cup and he has selected Signoff as the horse to beat in this year’s race, but he believes that My Ambivalent represents outstanding value at her current Melbourne Cup odds.

My Ambivalent was third behind Gentildonna and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic (2410m) earlier this year and she was not far away in the Group 1 Coronation Cup (2423m); form that Crispe believes is good enough to make her more that competitive in the 2014 Melbourne Cup.

“The best roughie I think is probably My Ambivalent and if you look at her four runs in Europe this year there is Arc form, Sheema form and it is a very strong for pattern this year.

“If she comes here and runs close to that she is one that has to go the exotics.

Update: Admire Rakti is top of the 2014 Melbourne Cup tips of Australian’s leading horse racing expert Dominic Beirne and he revealed that he would be extremely surprised if the winner of the Group 1 event at Flemington this afternoon did not come from Admire Rakti, Fawkner, Lucia Valentina and Signoff.

Leading form analyst Dominic Beirne believes that Admire Rakti is the horse to beat in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Leading form analyst Dominic Beirne believes that Admire Rakti is the horse to beat in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Beirne told RSN this morning that Admire Rakti and Lucia Valentina are the two horses that possess the most impressive turn-of-foot in the 2014 Melbourne Cup field, which was on show in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), and he believes that they are the two horses to beat – if they are able to get luck in running at the right time.

Fawkner was one of the horses Beirne tipped in the 2013 Melbourne Cup and he ran home strongly to finish a brave sixth and the former bookmaker believes that the Reset gelding will be better suited settle closer to the speed in this year’s race.

Beirne said that Fawkner has had an ideal preparation for the Melbourne Cup and pointed to the fact that the seven-year-old had produced a personal best performance when second to Adelaide in the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) as another positive for the Lloyd Williams-owned galloper.

Signoff gets into the Melbourne Cup extremely well in at the weights after he earnt a start in the race by taking out the Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday and Beirne admits that he would have the Darren Weir-trained on top of his selections if the Lexus Stakes had been a higher-rated race.

Beirne rates Araldo as the best roughie in Melbourne Cup betting and he believes that OTI Racing-owned Lidari will get the best run into the race.

Update: Form expert Paul Dailey has Lucia Valentina on top of his 2014 Melbourne Cup tips, but the ratings guru believes that Seismos represents excellent value at his current odds.

Seismos could be a value selection in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Seismos could be a value selection in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Seismos stamped himself as a Melbourne Cup contender when he scored a tough staying win over Willing Foe and Red Cadeaux in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2670m) at Newbury on August 16, but he was outpaced in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

Dailey told RSN this morning that Seismos will be much better suited by the long Flemington straight and he revealed that will be including Seismos in all his Melbourne Cup exotic bets.

“I suppose if we go very long in the market a horse like Seismos could potentially get into the placings, Dailey said.

“It was certainly pushed along the other day and I think that the 3200 metres will suit the horse and I am just a bit worried about where it gets to from the gate.

“He is certainly one that I will be including in those place exotics.”

Daily expects Lucia Valentina to win the 2014 Melbourne Cup from Protectionist and Signoff and he is happy to risk Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti and Cox Plate runner-up Fawkner at their current prices.

Update: Fawkner is on top of the 2014 Melbourne Cup tips of speed ratings expert Vince Accardi and he believes that the Lloyd Williams-owned galloper has plenty of factors in his favor in the $6 million event at Flemington tomorrow.

Daily Sectionals Founder Vince Accardi has Fawkner on top of his 2014 Melbourne Cup sectionals. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Daily Sectionals Founder Vince Accardi has Fawkner on top of his 2014 Melbourne Cup sectionals. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Fawkner worked home strongly to finish sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year, but Team Williams believe that the Reset gelding is taking even better form in this year’s race after winning the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) on October 11 and second in the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on October 25.

Accardi told RSN that he is buoyed by word out of the Williams camp that Fawkner will be ridden close to the speed in the Melbourne Cup and he believes that based on the Cox Plate run of the seven-year-old he has to be considered the horse to beat in the Group 1 event.

“I am sticking with Fawkner,” Accardi said.

“I am very, very excited to hear that the Williams camp have made it clear that they are going to be in a positive position and they are not going to race this horse back.

“I feel that is one of the key fundamentals that are going to be required.

“He produced the figure that he did in the Cox Plate and we have no doubt that if you look at the quality of Adelaide, if he was running in this race and he got the distance he would be far too good for the competition.

“Everything points to Fawkner, but you do need luck in running.”

Accardi has plenty of respect for the likes of Admire Rakti, Protectionist and Lucia Valentina, but he is looking a bit deeper in the 2014 Melbourne Cup betting market to round out his selections for ‘the race that stops a nation’.

The Daily Sectionals founder was most impressed with the performance of Mutual Regard in the Ebor Handicap (2816m) at York on August 23, while he also likes the form profiles of Araldo and Willing Foe heading into the Melbourne Cup.

“Mutual Regard is the big leapfrogger and he is producing times of a Group level.

“That worries me a lot and he is very, very lightly-raced and he has a superstar jockey on board in Damien Oliver.

“The horses we need to definitely entertain will be Araldo at a price and the other runner is Willing Foe.

“When I looked at his very early numbers he was producing outstanding figures, but he obviously went amiss and his first-up run was an indicator that he was halfway back to his best.

“I just wonder if this horse is going to produce what he did a few years ago and he is one that I am going to make sure is in my multiplies.”

Accardi successfully tipped Fiorente to win the 2013 Melbourne Cup and he was one of the biggest supporters of Adelaide heading into the Cox Plate.

Update: Admire Rakti is on top of the 2014 Melbourne Cup tips of international racing expert Francesca Cumani and she is confident that the Japanese stayer can carry the top weight of 58 and a half kilograms to victory in the Group 1 event.

Francesca Cumani believes that Admire Rakti is the horse to beat in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Francesca Cumani believes that Admire Rakti is the horse to beat in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Admire Rakti stamped himself as a clear favourite for the Melbourne Cup when he made his Australian racing debut with an impressive victory in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 11 and Cumani believes that the Heart’s Cry entire is even better over 3200 metres.

Cumani admits that the form of Admire Rakti is slightly inconsistent and he has flopped in Japan in races like the Group 1 Tenno Sho (3218m), but she told Racing.com that she still has the Caulfield Cup winner clearly on top of her Melbourne Cup selections.

“Everybody was thinking that they will just see how he goes and then he won so well,” Cumani said.

“He just looks the dominant horse in this field and he settles really nicely in the run.

“They do say that he is a bit on and off, but I will be looking a good look at him in the mounting yard to see what form he is in.

“He has a good barrier, a good jockey and he ticks all the boxes.

“He is very hard to go past him even with the top weight.”

While Cumani believes that Admire Rakti is clearly the horse to beat in the 2014 Melbourne Cup, she is also keen to back Roger Varian-trained mare My Ambivalent, who is currently available at the lengthy Melbourne Cup odds of $51.

Cumani said that My Ambivalent has some of the strongest form lines heading into the Melbourne Cup, but admits there is a question mark over the fitness of the Authorized mare and her ability to run out a strong 3200 metres.

“I am really interested about this one,” Cumani said.

“She is very talented, she is a Group 1 winner and when she ran in Dubai in the Sheema Classic she came third to Gentildonna and Cirrus Des Aigles and then she was third to Cirrus Des Aigles and Flintshire in the Coronation Stakes.

“That form around those horses is seriously good, but the thing is with her that she is seriously flighty and a slightly mad filly.

“She needs to settle because she is not guaranteed to get the two miles, but she is at a big price and is definitely worth a bet.”

Admire Rakti ($5.50) remains a clear favourite in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets from Lucia Valentina ($7.50), Signoff ($7.50) and Protectionist ($7.50).

The 2014 Melbourne Cup tips of racing experts from right around the world will be poured over by punters in the lead-up to the Group 1 event, but it is highly unlikely that there will be a consensus of the likely winner.

Protectionist is one horse that the majority of racing experts believe is an excellent chance in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Protectionist is one horse that the majority of racing experts believe is an excellent chance in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Admire Rakti is currently a clear favourite in Melbourne Cup betting markets, but a number of racing experts do not believe that the Japanese stayer is capable of becoming the first horse since Think Big in 1975 to carry more than 58 kilograms to victory in the Melbourne Cup.

Talented stayers like Vintage Crop, Vinnie Roe, Kingston Town, Dunaden, Yeats and Septimus have all carried more than 58 kilograms in the Melbourne Cup without success and it is doubtful that Admire Rakti is as talented as the majority of those horses.

Lucia Valentina is another horse towards the top of Melbourne Cup betting markets that has failed to convince racing pundits that she is capable of taking out ‘the race that stops a nation’, despite her strong form leading into the race.

The Savabeel mare worked home strongly to finish third in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) in a performance that indicated she is capable of running out a strong 3200 metres, but some racing experts believe that the four-year-old has too much natural brilliance to tough out a win over the testing staying trip.

German stayer Protectionist is one horse that a number of racing experts have included in their 2014 Melbourne Cup tips after he made his Australian racing debut with a strong fourth place finish in the Group 2 Hebert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on October 11.

The form coming out of the Herbert Power Stakes has been strong, with Big Memory running well in the Caulfield Cup and Signoff taking out the Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m), and the Monsun entire should have no trouble running out the trip after he took out the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay over 3000 metres in France in August.

Another horse that a number of form analysts fancy in Melbourne Cup betting is Lexus Stakes winner Signoff, who gets into the race with just 51 kilograms on his back.

While Signoff will actually carry 51 and a half kilograms, the majority of racing experts believe that the connections of the Authorized gelding have beaten the handicapper, in a year where the Melbourne Cup weights have been artificially raised due to the lack of a natural top weight, while the booking of leading jockey Joao Moreira is another big plus for the Darren Weir-trained stayer.

One Melbourne Cup runner that a number of horse racing pundits agree represents good each-way value at their current Melbourne odds is Chris Waller-trained Opinion, who is available at a quote of $67 to win and $17 to place.

Opinion may not have the talent to win the Melbourne Cup, but he has been placed at Group 1 level in both the Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) and Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m); with the Oasis Dream gelding looking like good value to finish in the top ten in the Melbourne Cup.

You can find plenty of Melbourne Cup tips in the lead-up to the race at horseracing.com.au.

Add Your Comment

20 Comments on 2014 Melbourne Cup Tips: Araldo Could Surprise

  1. Paddy says:

    Hard to beat

  2. A.T.K. says:

    Go the Aussie – Fawkner.

  3. Barry The Punter says:

    Dom Beirne is a good analyst. But I think he may have missed the mark this year. A must for top 4s though.

  4. Tinnman wallz says:

    RED C from 100 mts

  5. Stallion says:

    I prefer Rakti

  6. Stallion says:

    Admire Rakti,Lucia Valentina and Mutual Regard

  7. Aaron says:

    1st Admire Rakti 2nd Mutual Regard 3rd Who Shot the Barman

  8. The Radio Pig says:

    Admire Ratki or you have bacne

  9. jay png says:

    protectionist

  10. bet all kev says:

    23 2 win

  11. Tim Hickman says:

    Junoob e/w

  12. JS says:

    This is they year of Goldolphin, a quinella for them

  13. TammyM says:

    Yes I am with Dr… Lucia Valentina to win the cup..

  14. Dan says:

    Rakti all the wayyy!!!

  15. Matt L says:

    Mutual Regard… Ollie in Melbourne… anything over $10 is overs surely

  16. Bart Cummings says:

    Cavalryman is a cert.

  17. Lucy Henderson says:

    Agree with Bernard D – the German to improve on a blitzing Herbert Power fourth on debut down under and Prix Kergorlay form to stack up again

  18. Barry The Punter says:

    So are you gonna tip on Thomas? Or just talk about Melbourne Cup tips?

  19. Dr says:

    Lucia valentina all the way with junoob and seismos the cover

  20. Bernard D says:

    I like Protectionist for the Cup

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