2014 Melbourne Cup Odds: Admire Rakti To Start Favourite

By: Thomas Hackett
November 2nd, 2014

Update: Admire Rakti is available at 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $5.50 and the Japanese stayer is set to start the race that stops a nation’ as an outright favourite.

Admire Rakti has been favourite in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets since he took out the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) in impressive fashion on October 18, but the Heart’s Cry entire was an early drifted in Melbourne Cup betting following the release of the final field and he was wound out to $6 after initially being priced as short as $4.20.

The Group 1 winner was rock solid at a quote of $6 over the last 24 hours, but there have been a number of big bets for Admire Rakti in the last hour leading into the Melbourne Cup and he is now into a price of $5.50.

Mutual Regard ($8) has also received plenty of support in the last few hours and he is set to start at $10, while Lucia Valentina ($7 out to $7.50) and Signoff ($7.50 out to $8.50) have all been on the drift in the last hour.

Update: Unchain My Heart is into 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $81 after he was available at as much as $201 when the final field was released on Saturday night.

Unchain My Heart has recieved a surprising amount of support in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Unchain My Heart has recieved a surprising amount of support in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Unchain My Heart has won the past two editions of the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes (3200m) at Flemington, but she has performed inconsistently during her 2014 Spring Racing Carnival after finishing ninth in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on October 11 and she beat home just a single runner in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) at the same venue a week later.

While Unhain My Heart’s Melbourne Cup lead-up form has not been particularly impressive, she has been one of the best-backed runners in the past 24 hours and trainer David Hayes expects the Al Maher mare to perform better than her odds suggest.

“She is very good at two miles and she has won a couple of times at the track and distance,” Hayes told RSN this morning.

“She has an atrocious record over a mile and a half, but once she gets above a mile and a half she tends to come into her own.

“There maybe a question mark on the class, but she is fit and healthy and we couldn’t be happier with her.

Update: Fawkner is now into 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $7.50 and there has been plenty of money for talented gelding to deliver owner Lloyd Williams a fifth victory in ‘the race that stops a nation’.

Fawkner has been well-backed to record a third win at Group 1 level in the 2014 Melbourne Cup at Flemington this afternoon. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Fawkner has been well-backed to record a third win at Group 1 level in the 2014 Melbourne Cup at Flemington this afternoon. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

The son of Reset opened at a quote of $8 when then Melbourne Cup field was released on Saturday night and he drifted out to $9 on Sunday, but there have been plenty of large bets placed on the 2013 Caulfield Cup winner in the past 24 hours and he could challenge Admire Rakti for favouritism.

Fawkner started his 2014 Spring Racing Carnival with a close second behind Dissident in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on September 13 and he took out the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) on October 11 before he produced arguably the best performance of his career when second behind the talented Adelaide in the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on October 25.

Another runner that has been well-backed in Melbourne Cup betting markets is Johnny Murtagh-trained Mutual Regard, who is now into a quote of $10 after he opened at $13 on Saturday afternoon.

Mutual Regard is taking winning form into the Melbourne Cup after he recorded an impressive victory in the Group 1 Ebor Handicap (2800m) at York in August and there has been a consistent level of support for the progressive galloper since betting opened.

Admire Rakti ($6) remains a narrow favourite in Melbourne Cup betting markets from Fawkner ($7.50), Lucia Valentina ($7.50), Signoff ($8) and Protectionist ($8).

Update: Who Shot Thebarman has been backed into 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $17 and he has been a clear market mover in betting this afternoon.

Punters are hoping that Who Shot Thebarman can return to winning form in the 2014 Melbourne Cup at Flemington tomorrow. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

Punters are hoping that Who Shot Thebarman can return to winning form in the 2014 Melbourne Cup at Flemington tomorrow. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia

The Auckland Cup winner was available at a quote of $26 to deliver trainer Chris Waller a maiden in the Melbourne Cup and he was backed into $21 this morning before he was wound into $17 after punters continued to back the son of Yamanin Vital.

Who Shot Thebarman made his Australian racing debut with a ninth place finish in the Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick on April 19 and he made a slow start to his spring campaign before he was sent to Melbourne.

The lightly-raced six-year-old made his Melbourne racing debut with a strong staying performance in the Sofitel Girls’ Day Out Handicap (2000m) at Flemington on September 13 and proved that win was no fluke when he took out the Group 3 The Bart Cummings (2520m) on October 4.

Who Shot Thebarman finished a disappointing 13th in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 18, but punters looked to have blamed the tight-turning Caulfield track for the poor performance and are confident that he can return to winning form at Flemington in the Melbourne Cup.

There has also been a sprinkling support for stablemate Opinion ($67 into $61), Mike Moroney-trained stayer Araldo ($31 into $26) and Turnbull Stakes winner Lucia Valentina ($7.50 out to $7), while Seismos ($34 out to $81), Royal Diamond ($51 out to $91), Au Revoir ($67 out to $81) and Lidari ($41 out to $71) continue to drift.

Update: Mutual Regard is into 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $11 and he has been the best backed runner to take out ‘the race that stops a nation’ in the last six hours.

No overseas-trained horse has won the Melbourne Cup without a lead-up run in Australia since Vintage Crop took out the 1993 edition of the race, but punters are confident that the Johnny Murtagh-trained galloper can overcome this and deliver jockey Damien Oliver a fourth Melbourne Cup victory.

Mutual Regard will be making his debut at the highest level of racing in the Melbourne Cup, but he is taking winning form into the event after he recorded an impressive victory in the Ebor Handicap (2816m) at York on August 23.

Another horse that has had his quote shorten in Melbourne Cup betting this morning is Signoff, who is set to be the worst result for the majority of bookmakers right around Australia.

Signoff is now equal on the second line of Melbourne Cup betting markets with Lucia Valentina ($7.50) and Protectionist ($7.50), while Admire Rakti remains favourite at a quote of $5.50.

Japanese stayer Admire Rakti has drifted out to 2014 Melbourne Cup odds of $5.50, but he still remains a clear favourite to become the first horse since Ethereal in 2001 to complete the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double.

Signoff remains one of the best-backed runners in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Sarah Ebbett

Signoff remains one of the best-backed runners in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets. Photo by: Sarah Ebbett

Admire Rakti opened at a quote of $4.80 in Melbourne Cup betting markets once the final field was released last night, but he quickly drifted out to odds of $5 before $5.50 was made available for the Heart’s Cry entire this afternoon.

Lucia Valentina and Protectionist were both offered at $7 following the release of the Melbourne Cup field and the duo have also been on the drift in the last 24 hours and are out to a quote of $7.50.

The Melbourne Cup odds of Protectionist shortened significantly after he made his Australian racing debut with a fast-finishing fourth behind Big Memory in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield on October 11, while Lucia Valentina has been well supported throughout the 2014 Spring Racing Carnival and lost herself no admirers with her fast-finishing third in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

One of the biggest early drifters in 2014 Melbourne Cup betting markets has been Lloyd Williams-owned Fawkner, who is out to a quote of $9.50 after being as short as $8 less than 24 hours.

Fawkner made up plenty of ground late to finish sixth in the 2013 edition of the Melbourne Cup, but he is likely to be settled closer to the speed by jockey Nick Hall in this year’s race after he drew ideally in barrier nine.

The clear market mover in Melbourne Cup betting markets over the past week has been Signoff and he is back into $8 to deliver trainer Darren Weir his first Melbourne Cup victory after he finished second with She’s Archie in the 2003 edition of the race.

Signoff was backed from $51 into $17 before the Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) and he was shortened into $8 for the Melbourne Cup after he produced a tough staying performance to take out the ballot-exempt race.

Ebor Handicap winner Mutual Regard drifted in betting at the conclusion of the Melbourne Cup barrier draw last night, but he remained steady at his quote of $13 over the past 24 hours and there has been no change in the price of Kiwi stayer Who Shot Thebarman ($26), veteran stayer Precedence ($101), Ciaron Maher-trained Mr O’Ceirin ($201) and OTI Racing-owned Au Revoir ($67).

Seismos ($34 out to $51) failed to fire in the Caulfield Cup and he has been one of the biggest drifters in Melbourne Cup betting, while the odds of Cavalryman ($21 out to $26), Junoob ($21 out to $26), Royal Diamond ($51 out to $61), Lidari ($41 out to $71) and Brambles ($41 out to $51) have also lengthened in in the past 12 hours.

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7 Comments on 2014 Melbourne Cup Odds: Admire Rakti To Start Favourite

  1. The Radio Pig says:

    Bazza he ate the fish. Simon ODonnell reckons its better than a steak at noon

  2. Matt L says:

    Mutual Regard still good value at double figure odds… I wonder what Araldo would have come into if it hadn’t drawn the carpark

  3. Jaze says:

    According the formguides website, Unchain My Heart and Who Shot Thebarman are the only two horses in this field to have won ‘At this distance’ and ‘At this track’. Always a possibility, though not likely a probability.

  4. Barry The Punter says:

    Geez Signoff looks short. If the authorities would let me I’d open my own book and offer 25-1 on him. B-grade plodder.

  5. Bart Cummings says:

    $31 for Cavalryman looks juicy

  6. Lucy Henderson says:

    Get on Protectionist, liked it at $67 still like it at the firming price

  7. bazza says:

    Admire Rakti won’t win. Was good in the Caulfield Cup but this is a whole different kettle of fish.

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