Leading form expert Dominic Beirne has a number of 2014 George Ryder Stakes tips and believes that clear favourite Red Tracer is a ‘sucker bet’ at her current odds of $2.90.
Red Tracer has been extremely well backed in 2014 George Ryder Stakes because of her excellent wet-track record, of eight wins from ten starts, but Beirne told RSN this morning that the Dane Shadow mare may not be as strong on rain affected surfaces as her record suggests.
“If you like at stats Red Tracer is a formidable force on a wet track,” Beirne said.
“However, every time it has run on a wet track it returned a rating that is marginally below her pb or what she had done, on ratings, just prior to that.
“Some horses that are prolific wet track performers rate at a certain level and every time they get on a wet track they just step-up to a another level – that is not Red Tracer.
“She is not a superior wet tracker and I think what happens often when Red Tracer runs on a wet track is that a lot of the horses around her don’t handle the wet and she can rate comfortably enough to win.
“Personally I think that she is a sucker bet at that price.”
Beirne believes that the 2014 George Ryder Stakes is an extremely open betting race and said that there are a number of horses that represent fair betting value because Red Tracer is at such short odds.
Three-year-olds have a strong record in the George Ryder Stakes and Beirne is confident that El Roca and Eurozone will produce a strong effort, while he also feels that proven wet-track performers Sacred Falls and Streama represent good value at their current odds.
“A couple of the other wet trackers have firmed and they are where I had my focus – Sacred Falls and Streama,” Beirne said.
“They are both drawn to sit off the speed on the inside and if it is a fair go I think that they represent value.
“The two three-year-olds I have mighty respect for and every kilo is going to matter on this ground.
“At double figures they represent ok value as well.
“It is a very deep race.”
Red Tracer is currently a clear favourite in 2014 George Ryder Stakes betting markets, at a price of $3, from triple Group 1 winner Boban ($6), Doncaster Mile winner Sacred Falls ($7), and Team Cummings-trained Eurozone.