Sacred Falls and Fawkner are on top of the 2014 Cox Plate tips of leading form analyst Adam Blencowe and he believes that Sacred Falls represents the best value in the betting market for the Group 1 event at Moonee Valley this afternoon.
Sacred Falls made a fair start to his 2014 Spring Racing Carnival campaign before he returned to winning form in the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick on September 20 and was far from disgraced in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield on October 11.
Blencowe admits that Fawkner is set to get a better run into the race than Sacred Falls, but he remains confident that the O’Reilly entire is good enough to win the Cox Plate and is good value at his current Cox Plate odds of $7.50.
“I am still willing to go with Sacred Falls as the bet,” Blencowe told RSN.
“I’ve got Fawkner slightly on top and I think that things pan out better for Fawkner and his Caulfield Stakes win was terrific and gives him a really good chance.
“The map is an issue for Sacred Falls again and I expect them to take a chance here and look to settle a little bit closer.
“I thought that he closed perfectly well in the Caulfield Stakes there and that George Main Stakes win, it still lingers in the memory that that effort is there.
“I think that he is a pretty good winning chance.”
The overall quality of the 2014 Cox Plate field has been questioned in the lead-up to the race, but Blencowe believes that there is plenty of depth in the race and is worthy field for the Australasian Weight-For-Age Championship.
Blencowe rates Sacred Falls and Fawkner as the horses to beat in the Cox Plate, but he feels there are plenty of winning chances in the race and is not ruling out the likes of Australian Derby winner Criterion, European entire Adelaide, consistent mare Royal Descent and Godolphin colt Sweynesse.
“My market zones in on those two (Fawkner and Criterion) a little bit, with Criterion a good chance and Royal Descent off the terrific Epsom run and having dueled with the stablemate Sacred Falls before that she obviously measures up and I don’t think she is an unfair price.
“There is plenty of depth to it and you have the x-factor of Adelaide and I think that of the three-year-olds Sweynesse is the pick.
“There are plenty of good chances, but I am zoning in on the top two there.”
Fawkner is currently available at 2014 Cox Plate odds of $4.80 and is a clear favourite with Ladbrokes from Criterion ($6.50), Sacred Falls ($7.50) and Adelaide ($7.50).