Criterion is the 2014 Australian Derby tip of leading form expert Dominic Beirne and he believes that the talented colt should be much shorter than his current price for the Group 1 event at Royal Randwick yesterday.
Criterion stamped himself as the clear favourite for the Australian Derby with a dominant three and a half lengths win in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 29; a performance that has him ranked equal 27th in the latest World’s Best Racehorse Rankings.
Beirne is confident that Criterion can replicate that performance in the Australian Derby this weekend and told RSN that he does not believe the current odds on offer for the son of Sebring will be available tomorrow.
“The challenge with Criterion is how much he was advantaged by coming hard on the inside of the field, but I suggest the way that the horse was travelling that he could have come around the outside fence and still won,” Beirne said.
“He was going so brilliantly.
“That was an extremely high-rated Rosehill Guineas; the race rated five and a half lengths better than the Tulloch Stakes, so the winner of the Tulloch Stakes might have run fifth or sixth in the Rosehill Guineas.
“I am putting a pen through those horses like Gallatin and Singing Flame because I just don’t think they are up for it.
“I think that Criterion should be much shorter than $3.50.
“You wouldn’t see too many Rosehill Guineas winners win like that and enter the Derby and be 5/2.”
Thunder Fantasy worked home strongly to finish second behind Criterion in the Rosehill Guineas and Beirne believes that the Victoria Derby placegetter is the major danger to his 2014 Australian Derby tip.
Beirne indicated that he is happy to focus all of his Australian Derby betting around Criterion and Thunder Fantasy and would be surprised if another stayer was able to win the $2 million Group 1 event.
“The horse that can lift his rating, and has the pattern to do so, is Thunder Fantasy,” Beirne said.
“I think that it is a fairly easy race in two to be honest.
“I think that Thunder Fantasy should be much shorter than $7.
“I think that you are getting super value if you back the two of them now.”
Criterion is currently a clear favourite in 2014 Australian Derby betting markets, at odds of $3.60, while Thunder Fantasy is available at a quote of $7.