Leading form analyst Dominic Beirne is confident that his 2014 Australian Cup tip Fiorente can give trainer Gai Waterhouse her maiden win in the Group 1 event at Flemington tomorrow.
Beirne told RSN this morning that he understands why some punters have been keen to back Shamus Award, due to his memorable Cox Plate victory, and admits that he believes Fiorente is a better horse at 2400 metres and beyond, but currently rates the Melbourne Cup winner as a $1.80 chance in the Australian Cup this weekend.
“I’ve always been of the view that Fiorente is going to have a different rating level at long distances then he is going to have around these distances,” Beirne said.
“I’m pretty sure he proved that in the Melbourne Cup; where my figures say that his rating is two lengths higher than anything he had done before.
“When he came back from a spell back at nine furlongs (in the Peter Young Stakes), he rated where he did at Moonee Valley second-up last time in last time.
“He then advanced a little bit and kept creeping up, so I think around about the Cox Plate rating is about as kind as you can be to him.
“There is every chance Shamus Award will run to that, but we can’t ignore completely that Melbourne Cup rating and my computer has balanced that all up and rated him at $1.80.
“I think that he will win.”
Jockey Damien Oliver will partner Fiorente in the Australian Cup and the leading hoop agrees that the son of Monsun is the horse to beat in the Group 1 event this weekend.
Oliver was most impressed with Fiorente’s first-up performance in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes, but believes that the imported stayer has taken plenty of benefit out of the run and will be even better when he returns to Flemington.
“I think that he has trained on really well since that run and Flemington is a more suitable track from him,” Oliver said.
“The 2000 metres is ideal at this part of his preparation and I couldn’t be happier with his condition going into the race.”
Beirne is of the opinion that Shamus Award represents the major danger to Fiorente and Oliver agrees that the Australian Guineas winner is racing well, but admits that he is also wary of 2012 Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon and Peter Young Stakes runner-up Mourayan.
“Shamus Award is in great form and he is a bold front-runner who can really dictate his races, but I also have a lot of respect for Lloyd Williams pair,” Oliver said.
“They ran super first-up and I except them to come on as well.”
Fiorente ($2.20) is currently a clear favourite in the 2014 Australian Cup betting market at Ladbrokes Australia and there has also been support for Shamus Award ($4.40), Thunder Fantasy ($8) and Foreteller ($9).