The 2013 Victoria Derby tip for ratings expert Adam Blencowe is Complacent and he believes that the Darley colt deserves to be favourite for the Group 1 event at Flemington on Saturday.
Complacent was clear favourite for the Victoria Derby after recording impressive wins in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) and Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) but has drifted significantly since drawing barrier 16 on Wednesday morning; with Savvy Nature the new favourite.
Blencowe, a leading Timeform handicapper at Racing and Sports, admits that the barrier draw is a slight concern but believes that the Authorized colt deserves to be favourite because of his stellar lead-up form.
“Complacent was terrific in the Gloaming and backed that up in the Spring Champion,” Blencowe told RSN.
“You could argue that Savvy Nature should have got closer to him in both of those but I think that Complacent leads two nil and deserves to be favourite.
“At about $5 I am happy to back him, he has a wide barrier to overcome, but if he rolls in and finds a spot that $5 is going to be looking very generous.”
Savvy Nature has been the 2013 Victoria Derby tip for a number of racing experts and is now a clear favourite at odds of $4.60 but Blencowe said that he is happy to leave out the son of Savebeel and believes that Robbie Laing-trained Polanski is the major danger to Complacent.
“I think Polanski is probably the danger and I have him second pick,” Blencowe said.
“Savvy Nature might have levelled out on his mark behind Complacent.
“He was really good winning the Vase last week but he was really there to win that week and it was there for him to take.
“It was impossible to say that he improved and if anything he went backwards.
“There is probably more left in the tank but Complacent deserves to be favourite and Polanski has done nothing wrong.”
Savvy Nature remains the punters elect in 2013 Victoria Derby betting markets but the major market mover has been Polanski, who is now into $6 after being available at $10 earlier in the week, while there has also been support for Norman Robinson Stakes runner-up San Diego ($7), his stablemate Tupac Amaru ($18) and David Hayes-trained Surging Wave.