The 2013 Melbourne Cup is one of the toughest betting races in the history of the event but that will not stop punters from all Australia putting their hard earned cash on who they think will win the $6 million Group 1 event at Flemington tomorrow.
Even the experts have struggled to come up with their selections but that hasn’t stopped us from compiling a complete list of 2013 Melbourne Cup experts tips so that you can see where the smart money is going in 2013 Melbourne Cup betting markets.
Fiorente ($7.50) and Mount Athos ($9.50) have both been battling for 2013 Melbourne Cup favouritism in the past week and the experts believe that these two are the horses to beat, but there has also been plenty of support for Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner who has been a market mover and is into odds of $15.
Fiorente has found even more support and is into odds of $7, while highly rated imports Voleuse De Coeurs ($17) and Tres Blue ($26) have both continued to drift after being well backed before the barrier draw on Saturday.
Gary Crispe – Timeform and Racingandsports
2013 Melbourne Cup Tip: Mount Athos, Dandino and Verema
Gary Crispe has been one of Australia’s premier racing handicappers for over thirty years and this year he is confident that a European-trained horse will be the winner of the 2013 Melbourne Cup.
The leading Timeform guru rates Mount Athos as his top Melbourne Cup tip and considers Caulfield Cup runner-up Dandino the major danger but admits that this is probably the most open event in the history of ‘the race that stops a nation.’
“We have Mount Athos in front of Dandino but it is a pretty wide market at about the $9 mark,” Crispe said on RSN.
“It is a very open field and there is a lot of depth in the race.
“It is one of the best fields, if not the best field, in memory.
“I think that they all come here in good form but it is just a question of whether they can produce it in their first run on Australian soil.
“Mount Athos has been here before; he is missing his picket-fence form from last year but in terms of his rating he is here with actually the same rating.
“I am expecting him to reproduce that here tomorrow.
“Dandino we have already seen here once in the Caulfield and he has a profile that fits very well to the Melbourne Cup.”
Vince Accardi – Daily Sectionals
2013 Melbourne Cup Tip: Fiorente, Fawkner, Verema and Mount Athos
Vince Accardi from Daily Sectionalsis the leading gatherer of horse racing data in Australia and accumulates accurate sectional data on races all around the country.
The sectionals guru has analysed the likely speed profile of the 2013 Melbourne Cup and is confident that the race will be run at a far quicker tempo than the 2012 edition of the race that severely disadvantaged horses that were forced to come from the back of the field.
Accardi believes that the expected tempo of the race will advantage Fiorente, who he rates as a clear favourite at Melbourne Cup odds of $5, as well as Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner.
“Fiorente gets the gun run and we had confirmation through the Cox Plate that the horse possesses versatility and that is because Gai Waterhouse has had the horse in her regime for a year,” Accardi told RSN.
“I have marked Fiorente at $5.
“At this point I am really locked into both Fiorente and Fawkner.
“Fawkner gets a magnificent run in transit and he will get his opportunity to strike.
“He is going to be very, very strong late.”
Ralph Horowitz – RSN
2013 Melbourne Cup Tip: Mount Athos, Tres Blue, Verema and Seville
Ralph Horowitz has been a horse racing journalist for over two decades but in the past two years he has committed himself to helping RSN listeners and formerly TVN watchers find winners at all Melbourne metropolitan race meetings.
Horowitz admits that he has a big opinion of Fiorente but considers him a risk at his current price and believes that Mount Athos is the horse to beat in the 2013 Melbourne Cup, especially with the predicted strong pace in the race.
“There is no reason to doubt Mount Athos’s ability,” Horowitz said on RSN.
“He is just such a good horse and he had everything against him last year.
“I’ve got no doubts about him and, with Ruscello coming into the field, Mount Athos should get the pace this year.
“If he gets the pace and gets cover from the gates, he might be advantaged by the barrier draw.
“I would be staggered if this bloke isn’t favourite tomorrow and a quiet short-priced favourite.”
Dominic Beirne – IWS
2013 Melbourne Cup Tip: Fiorente, Fawkner and Sea Moon
Dominic Beirnewas Australia’s biggest bookmaker in the 1980s and, after his retirement from his stand, is now considered one of Australia’s best form students and one of the most progressive members of the Australian racing community.
Beirne has three factors that he looks for when searching for the winner of the Melbourne Cup; a horse must have achieved their personal best rating at their lead-up race, be having the fifth run of their preparation and have had an abbreviated autumn campaign in Australia or New Zealand.
Doriemus (1995) and Makybe Diva (2003) are the only horses in the past twenty years who have ticked all of these boxes but in the 2013 Melbourne Cup both Fiorente and Fawkner satisfied these requirements; with the highly-rated Sea Moon the major danger.
“I have waited ten years to find a horse with the right profile and we have two this year,” Beirne said on RSN.
“I would be backing Fiorente and Fawkner.
“He (Fawkner) satisfied these three factors that I have waited ten years to see and there is no doubt that Lloyd Williams has adapted to these factors.
“Fiorente repeated his personal best in the Cox Plate, at arguably a distance too short and a racetrack too small and I have been forecasting all spring that the Cup, not the Cox Plate would be the race for him.
“We haven’t seen the best of Sea Moon and I think he is ready to fire so he would be my third pick.”
Lucy Henderson – Races.com.au
2013 Melbourne Cup Tip: Fawkner, Sea Moon and Verema
Lucy Henderson is a stats guru who has accumulated every possible fact or statistic that is relevant to the 2013 Melbourne Cup field.
Henderson has used these facts to come up with her own Melbourne Cup selections and after a great deal of analysis believes that Lloyd Williams will take home his fifth Melbourne Cup with either Fawkner or Sea Moon.
“Having done the Melbourne Cup form, over and over, there are just too many positives to ignore on this galloper – one of six for the prolific owner-trainer partnership of Lloyd Williams and Robert Hickmott,” Henderson said about Fawkner on races.com.au.
“This Reset six-year-old is ultra-consistent and won nine of their 20 career starts giving him the best win rate of the field in 45%.
“They have a good weight (54.5kg), which is half a kilo less than their Caulfield Cup winning weight, gun barrier eight draw, continues to rise to distance and class challenges and an ace Flemington record (9-5-2-1).”