Dominic Beirne is adamant his 2013 Cox Plate Tip It’s A Dundeel will be very difficult to beat in the Group 1 event at Moonee Valley tomorrow and believes the four-year-olds injury interrupted preparation could be a blessing in disguise.
It’s A Dundeel is the current favourite in 2013 Cox Plate betting markets at odds of $4.20 but there have been some concerns over the fitness of the High Chaparral entire after he missed the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) due to a minor injury.
Beirne, one of Australia’s most respected form students, told RSN that he is confident the light build-up won’t be a problem for It’s A Dundeel in the 2013 Cox Plate and believes it may be an advantage for the classy galloper because of his strong third-up record.
“We haven’t got any history of any Australian races going into the race with five weeks off because there are traditional races that they all run in,” Beirne said.
“I have got to go on the fact that this horse is unbeaten third, fourth and fifth-up and his highest rating performance was in the Rosehill Guineas, which was third up from a spell.
“Had he had another run and rated through the roof third-up I would be thinking that I don’t think he is a horse that can take a lot of runs in a preparation.
“From that perspective it could be a blessing in disguise.”
It’s A Dundeel will jump from barrier 12 tomorrow but Beirne does not think the wide draw will hurt his 2013 Cox Plate tips and said he expects the five-time Group 1 winner to get a perfect run into the race.
“I think that It’s A Dundeel is the horse that the race will be run to suit,” Beirne said.
“This horse has blistering acceleration and he can just find three or four lengths very quickly.
“If it is a day where rounding them up is an advantage he will be winning the race.”
Beirne clearly has a high opinion of It’s A Dundeel but admits he is not a certainty and has labeled Caulfield Guineas winner Long John, who has been the best backed runner in the past 24 hours, the major danger.
Caulfield Guineas winners have a poor record in the Cox Plate, with Red Anchor in 1984 the last horse to complete the double, but Beirne is confident that Long John still has some improvement in front on him and has the opportunity to dictate the race with just 49.5kg on his back.
“Typically three-year-olds come back in rating in the Cox Plate, particularly Caulfield Guineas winners, and I think one of the reasons is that it takes a whole lot out of them to win the Caulfield Guineas and the trainers don’t really know it until they have had that extra run,” the former bookmaker said.
“My impression of Long John is that he probably hasn’t peaked and I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and stick with the fact the computer has him marked second favourite.
“With the light-weight he has the opportunity to put the speed on and round up the British outsider horses that should be pretty easy to gallop up too and kick clear off.
“They will have to run him down with heavier weights and I think that he is a super chance.”
Beirne does not think that any other horse can beat his 2013 Cox Plate tips if they run at their best on Saturday but considers Turnbull Stakes winners Happy Trails the best value runner of the other horses in the field.