When it comes to Caulfield Cup form, Cups King Bart Cummings knows where the winners come from and even though he hasn’t got a runner in today’s Group 1 $2.5m BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) at Caulfield he is certainly the man who knows how to win one.
Cummings had trained seven Caulfield Cup winners, Viewed (2009) Let’s Elope (1991), Ming Dynasty (1980, 1977), Leilani (1974), Big Philou (1969) and Galilee (1966) and highlights several lead up races as significant pointers to the Caulfield Cup winner.
Because Cummings hasn’t a runner, he hasn’t studied the field intensely enough to pick out the main fancies, but has offered his advice on which races to focus on in the last month.
“I haven’t had a good look at the field so I wouldn’t want to lead you astray,” Cummings told The Daily Telegraph.
“The best tip I can give is to follow the pattern of Caulfield Cup winners over the last 20 years.
“If you can follow the pattern, then you can find the winner.”
With no runners coming out of last week’s Group 1 $400,000 Cathay Pacific Caulfield Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield, Cummings has highlighted the Group 1 $500,000 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 5 as a great form line for today’s Caulfield Cup.
“The Turnbull Stakes, that’s the key race. Why change it,” Cummings said.
“You can find the Caulfield Cup winner from that race.”
Apart from the statistics, Cummings said the winner will have to able to stay, settle in the run and have a strong finishing burst at the end of a tough 2400m.
“There are a few things you need to win this race,” Cummings said.
“Firstly, you need a horse with the ability to stay and have a good burst at the finish.
“A horse can’t pull during the race, they have to relax, because they usually go at a genuine staying speed, and it is a tough mile and a half.”
Turnbull Stakes winner Happy Trails and runner up Puissance De Lune are not Caulfield Cup starters, but ten of today’s runners who finished behind the top two could be the winner of today’s race.
Third placegtter Fawkner is well fancied in the Caulfield Cup odds at $11 with the Chris Waller trained Hawkspur heading the betting at $5 after flashing home along the inside to finish fifth.
Kiwi mare Silent Achiever’s run was very good as was David Hayes’ import Jet Away to finish sixth and seventh and both are well in the betting at $7.50 and $9.50 respectively.
Of the remaining six Turnbull runners, Royal Descent’s run stood out after the mare was held for a run at a vital stage and is marked as a $7 chance with Dear Demi ($21), Mr O’Ceirin ($34) running fair races while, Glencadam Gold ($41) led and faded and Tuscan Fire ($61) and Manighar ($61) never threatened.