That’s the question Peter Moody hopes to answer over the next few months when Black Caviar gets back on track for her autumn campaign.
While she doesn’t need to improve to remain an unbeaten superstar of Australian racing she probably does to prove Moody right.
“I’ve said all along that she’ll be at her best at five and I still believe it,” he said.
“I’ll either be proven a genius or a mug in the next three weeks.”
She’s off to a pretty good start at least with a dominant jumpout win over 800m at Caulfield.
She covered the trip in 46.34sec around three seconds faster than all 12 other jumpouts on the same day.
This was all done well short of capacity and she’s still not even fully fit, carrying about 10kg more than she should.
“She races at about 570-580kg,” Moody said.
“She has a big six to eight weeks ahead of her … so we’ll need to have a bit of weight on her.”
The only real way Black Caviar could face a problem this campaign would be if she had an issue with the 1400m.
Given the manner of her 16 previous wins and her temperament though it’s probably not a pressing concern.
That’s certainly the approach from Luke Nolen anyway and he knows her style better than any.
“I think she’ll run it on her ear. She’s just so relaxed. There’s no way she’d rip and tear,” he said.
“(Trainer) Jim Conlan always said to me when I was a junior jockey that any horse who can run a strong 1200m up the straight (at Flemington) would be perfectly suited at 1400m, and we all know what Black Caviar can do up the straight.”
Black Caviar will run first up in the 1200m Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley in two weeks time before going to 1400m in the Orr and Futurity Stakes at Caulfield next month.
All of this is geared towards having her primed for the Royal Ascot Carnival in England during June.