Timeform’s Gary Crispe is taking a line through the Winx form and has selected the Darren Weir trainer Humidor as his 2017 Melbourne Cup tip.
Crispe thinks that Weir will be able to win his second Group 1 $6.25m Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington today after claiming first place in the famous two miler with Prince Of Penzance two years ago.
Crispe points out that Humidor has similar form as 1996 Melbourne Cup winner Saintly who won the Cox Plate at The Valley prior to his famous Cup win.
Humidor might not have won this year’s Group 1 $3m Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m) at The Valley on October 28, but he did get to within a long neck of super star mare Winx who claimed her third successive win in ‘The Weight For Age Championship’.
“Humidor has been given a similar preparation to the one Saintly had in 1996 and his ratings profile is consistent with that horse,” Crispe told The Courier-Mail.
“He won third up, went to a mile and a half then came back to the Cox Plate and ran a new peak rating. Saintly then peaked again in the Melbourne Cup and there’s no reason Darren Weir can’t get Humidor to do the same.”
“He’s the only horse to have got close to Winx at 2000m in the last two years.”
Crispe is also giving the Hughie Morrison trained Marmelo a great chance and has thrown him in for second with the other English galloper Wall Of Fire his third selection.
“Marmelo comes through the Kergolay and ran the same Timeform rating as Protectionist and his first up run in the Caulfield Cup speaks for itself,” Crispe said.
“Wall Of Fire is a progressive type and the Herbert Power form lines through Boom Time and Lord Fandango have stacked up since.”
Humidor haas been around the money at his last four starts which includes a win in the Group 1 $750,000 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on September 16.
The five year old then ran third to Winx in the Group 1 $500,000 Seppelt Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 7 before finishing fifth to Boom Time two starts back in the Group 1 $3.15m BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) at Caulfield on October 21.
Humidor has drifted slightly in the Melbourne Cup betting at Ladbrokes.com.au and is now listed at $12 while Marmelo continues to firm and is now the clear cut $7.50 favourite.
The Hugo Palmer trained Wall Of Fire is also well in contention for the Melbourne Cup at $12.