Chautauqua and Exosphere are on top of the 2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes tips of form expert Daniel O’Sullivan and he believes that the two leading sprinters are very tough to split ahead of the Group 1 event at Flemington on Saturday.
Chautauqua is set to fight out the 2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes finish with Exosphere. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
O’Sullivan has always had a very high opinion of Chautauqua and he admits that the two-time Group 1 winner is the proven commodity in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes field, but he is confident that Exosphere is capable of matching it with his rival if he performs at his very best.
The leading form analyst is confident that Exosphere or Chautauqua will win the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes, but at this stage he is not willing to throw his support behind either galloper.
“It is going to be a cracking race,” O’Sullivan told Radio TAB.
“It is a really great clash between these two horses because on their best performance figures there is really nothing between the two of them.
“You have Chautauqua who is well established running Group 1 figures and he is capable of producing that first-up.
“Most importantly, he has done it down the straight before.
“Exosphere is an extreme talent and he is clearly the best-rated three-year-old this season from his deeds early last preparation.
“When he went to the straight he was disappointing, but there were a few excuses there and off that you can’t say he doesn’t handle the straight.
“He has figures well and truly up to matching Chautauqua and if either of those two run to their best it is extremely unlikely that any of these other runners will be able to eclipse that on the day.
“When you have two horses that are capable of doing that, they likelihood of both failing is fairly small.
“I would be confident enough to say that one of those two will win, but it is very tough to split them on any objective data.”
While O’Sullivan is confident that he has narrowed the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes down to a couple of chances, he does not see a great deal of betting value in the race and will likely not have a bet in the race.
“I don’t know if I see any compelling betting opportunity there,” O’Sullivan said.
“As a punter you need to decide what type of punter you want to be.
“Just because the race is high profile it doesn’t mean that you need to bet on it and you need to look for the good betting opportunities.
“If you enjoy the action and having a stake in the better races than that is fine if that is the punter you want to be.
“In my case I look at that race and there is really nothing I see that the market is underestimating about any of the chances there.
“There is no compelling opportunity, but I will definitely be watching and it is going to be a great race.”
Exosphere is currently available at 2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes odds of $2.50 with Ladbrokes and he is a narrow favourite from Chautauqua ($2.60), Delectation ($8), Terravista ($8.50), Japonisme ($10), Kinglike ($26) and Va Pensiero ($81).
