Form expert Daniel O’Sullivan has Tarzino on top of his 2015 Victoria Derby tips, but he believes that Lizard Island represents the best value in betting markets for the Group 1 event that will be held at Flemington tomorrow.
Lizard Island has only recorded one win from his six race starts, but he has been one of the most consistent three-year-olds during the 2015 Spring Racing Carnival and he finished second in the Listed Pin And Win Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on September 12, the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) on October 10 and the Group 3 Ladbrokes Caulfield Classic (2000m) a week later.
O’Sullivan told RSN that Lizard Island’s Caulfield Classic performance was extremely tough and he is confident that the Sebring entire will receive a dream run in transit in the 2015 Victoria Derby.
“I can’t believe this horse is double figure odds,” O’Sullivan said.
“He has a second in a Caulfield Guineas two starts ago that is right up there to win this race and in the Caulfield Classic last start after they had gone a couple of 100 metres all the other horses were settling and relaxing into their rhythm and Lizard Island was still under the pump working around the outside to take up a position when Tommy Berry recognised that he couldn’t slot in.
“His effort to kick at the top of the straight and just be run down by Sacred Eye had a stack of merit.
“When you consider that early work, he is again left with a figure that is good enough to win this race and from barrier three he looks to jump out and hold a position off the leading group without doing any work at all.
“That is a massive difference to what he had to do in the Classic and the way that he stuck on in that race says to me that 2500 is going to be no problem.
“I really like the profile and it is the profile of a horse that should be single figure odds not double figure odds.”
The other horse that O’Sullivan believes represents value at his current Victoria Derby odds is Kia Ora Koutou, who is currently on the second line of Victoria Derby betting markets at a quote of $8.
Kia Ora Koutou has recorded four wins from as many starts in Western Australia and O’Sullivan believes that the Blackfriars gelding has the necessary scope to go to a new level that will be good enough to win the 2015 Victoria Derby.
“His last start rating there beating the older horses measures up here and he is another one that comes into this with scope for improvement,” O’Sullivan said.
“That form might not read that well, but because of the minimum handicap weight he was actually carrying four and a half kilograms over weight-for-age and giving those horses six and a half or more kilos in weight.
“He did it in a small field in a slow-run race and he did it easily without being asked for an all-round effort.
“Coming here to a race over 2500 metres with a prospect of more speed is a really good scenario for him to go ahead in his figures and that puts him right in the mix.”
Tarzino is currently available at 2015 Victoria Derby odds of $2.50 with Ladbrokes and he is a clear favourite Kia Ora Koutou ($7.50) and Lizard Island ($10).
Don’t miss out on the best Victoria Derby odds with Ladbrokes, who are offering Best Tote or Starting Price +20% on every single race at Flemington on Saturday.