Ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan has Sweet Idea on top of his 2015 T.J. Smith Stakes tips and is happy to take on Chautauqua, Terravista and Lankan Rupee in the Group 1 event at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Chautauqua, Terravista and Lankan Rupee are currently on top of the 2015 T.J. Smith Stakes betting market, but O’Sullivan told RSN this morning that the three sprinters all performed well short of their best in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington on March 12 and he said that he can’t back any of the three at their current T.J. Smith Stakes odds.
“I found it a really hard race to assess,” O’Sullivan said.
“The reason is that we have the three big guns.
“Last preparation we saw Terravista and Chautauqua produce world class sprint performance figures, but this preparation they haven’t done that yet and that is a big concern for me.
“Lankan Rupee we saw him produce something like his best in the Lightning, but then last start he was very disappointing.
“They are the three big guns in the race and there is a really a query over whether they are going to produce those world class figures in the race and it is very dangerous from a betting perspective if you start relying heavily on performances in the past and strongly discount what we have seen recently from horses.
“I cannot have Chautauqua and Terravista for those reasons just mentioned, but they are more than capable of winning the race and it wouldn’t surprise me if either of them did.”
Sweet Idea has flown under the radar heading into the 2015 T.J. Smith Stakes, but she is one of only two horses taking winning form into the Group 1 event after she took out the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) in impressive fashion on March 21.
O’Sullivan rates Sweet Idea’s performance in The Galaxy superior to the efforts produce by Chautauqua, Terravista and Lankan Rupee in the Newmarket Handicap and he is happy to back the talented mare at her current quote of $6.
“The horse I actually have on top in the race is Sweet Idea,” O’Sullivan said.
“Her last start in The Galaxy was phenomenal and she really put some margins on some pretty good horses.
“The performance figure out of that race actually stacks up as the best last start figure in this field.
“It is very easy to overlook her and say that she is not up to the world class talent of the big guns, but the fact is those horses have produced that world class talent at their last starts, so that is something worth keeping in mind.”
Chautauqua ($3.10) and Terravista ($3.10) are currently locked in a battle for favouritism with Ladbrokes, while Lankan Rupee is on the third line of betting at $5.