Form expert Daniel O’Sullivan does not have Don’t Doubt Mamma on top of his 2015 Sandown Guineas tips and he believes that she is well under the odds at her current quote of $3.60.
Don’t Doubt Mamma stamped herself as a horse to follow when she finished fourth behind Stay With Me in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley on September 5 and O’Sullivan was very keen on her when she took out the MRC Foundation Plate (1400m) at Caulfield on September 19.
She failed to fire in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on October 4, but she returned to winning form with a strong performance in the Listed Lexus Hybrid Plate (1400m) at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day.
O’Sullivan admits that the performance of Don’t Doubt Mamma was visually impressive, but he told RSN that the figures coming out of the race weren’t particularly strong and because of that he is happy to take on the daughter of Not A Single Doubt in the 2015 Sandown Guineas.
“She has been one of my horses and I really like her on the day she won at Caulfield there,” O’Sullivan said.
“Last start it was a great ride to win the race, it was a good win and there is no real reason to pot it, but I did think that the fast pace really suited her and the visual impressiveness was not as strong as the figures.
“It looked like she was absolutely powering to the line, but the fact is that they were running particularly slow and the leaders were stopping.
“She actually ran the slowest last 200 metres rating of any runner on the day, which puts in context that they really were walking to the line and she was just finishing over the top of them.
“That made the win perhaps look a little bit better than what it was although it was still a solid win.
“I don’t put as much emphasis on that as the market and that is probably the difference there in our prices.
“I have her around about the $6, $6.50 mark and I can’t get her anywhere near the $3.60.”
O’Sullivan was very bullish about the chances of the He’s Our Rokki in the Sandown Guineas, but Lindsay Park have scratched the three-year-old and he will run in the Group 2 Western Australian Guineas (1600m) in Ascot next week.
Don’t Doubt Mamma ($3.40) is currently available at 2015 Sandown Guineas odds of $3.40 with Ladbrokes and she is a clear favourite from Mahuta ($5), Ngarimu ($8.50), Dal Cielo ($9) and Demonstrate ($9.50).