Form expert Daniel O’Sullivan has Kermadec on top of his 2015 Australian Guineas tips, but he believes that Stratum Star and Wandjina are the two horses that represent the best value in the Group 1 event at Flemington tomorrow.
Kermadec is currently a dominant favourite at Australian Guineas odds of $3.40, but O’Sullivan told RSN that he feels the form coming out of the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) has been overrated and he is not willing to back the Chris Waller-trained galloper at such a short quote.
The short price on offer for Kermadec means that there is plenty of value outside the favourite in Australian Guineas betting markets and O’Sullivan believes that Stratum Star is exceptional value after he produced a strong effort in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on February 21.
“One of the horses that I really like is Stratum Star,” O’Sullivan said.
“That CS Hayes won by Wandjina last time was very strong on the clock and Stratum Star travelled beautifully in the run and at the 600 you just thought he was the winner and he ran on like he was going to win, but he just seemed to peak late on his run.
“He is really going to take another good step forward here and go very close to winning.
“I have a lot of respect for Darren Weir’s ability to improve horses as they get into their campaign and also to improve them from one preparation to the next.
“When they met in the Carbine Club, Kermadec just edged out Stratum Star and Kermadec had the absolute dream run in the race, while Stratum Star was sitting three and four wide with no cover.
“On the figures of their recent form and that meeting last spring I just can’t see any reason why Stratum Star should be almost two and half times the value of Kermadec and I think that he is terrific value in this race.”
Stratum Star was unable to catch Wandjina in the final stages of the CS Hayes Stakes and the Gai Waterhouse-trained colt is another horse that O’Sullivan believes represents great value in Australian Guineas betting markets.
Wandjina has been an inconsistent galloper throughout his racing career to date, but O’Sullivan said that he was most impressed with the effort of the son of Snitzel in the CS Hayes Stakes and believes he could factor in the finish if he is able to replicate that effort.
“Wandjina was the one sitting up on the pace going faster than anything in the CS Hayes Stakes and he was still one of the strongest on the line,” O’Sullivan said.
“Although he can be a bit hit and miss and has taken a while to put it together, he was only beaten 1 and a quarter lengths by Shooting To Win in the Caulfield Guineas and he is a very talented horse on his day and the figures out of the CS Hayes Stakes only back that up.”
Kermadec is currently available at Australian Guineas odds of $3.40 with Ladbrokes and is a clear favourite from Alpine Eagle ($6), Wandjina ($7.50) and Stratum Star ($8).