Form analyst Daniel O’Sullivan has Chautauqua on top of his 2015 All Aged Stakes tips, but he believes that Lucky Hussler and Wandjina are the value selections in the Group 1 event at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Chautauqua is currently available at 2015 All Aged Stakes tips of $3 and is a clear favourite to score his second straight win at Group 1 level following his fast-finishing win in the Group 1 T.J. Smith Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on April 6, but O’Sullivan told RSN that he is worried about where the Encosta De Lago gelding will end up in the end and believes that he will need luck in running to take out the All Aged Stakes this weekend.
“It is a big concern,” O’Sullivan said when asked about Chautauqua’s barrier draw.
“He has Terravista and Shooting To Win drawn on his outside and if he lets them cross him then when Dissident and Wandjina come across, Tommy Berry could potentially find himself four pairs back on the fence.”
“If closer to the fence is the preferred going on the day, he is going to be in a position of needing to duck and weave and rely in gaps to open up and the alternative is trying to shift off the fence at some point and then get clear to make a run, but that is very much subject to luck especially in a big field like this with 13 runners.
“I wouldn’t imagine any of the other runners are going to be doing him any favors, so it is a very precarious draw for Chautauqua and while he is my top pick in the race, I think that the $3 is very light for the risks involved.”
Lucky Hussler and Wandjina are also taking winning form into the All Aged Stakes following their respective victories in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) and Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) and O’Sullivan believes that both horses are genuine winning chances in the Group 1 event.
O’Sullivan feels that the pattern of the Royal Randwick track could dictate the chances of Lucky Hussler and Wandjina, but he feels that both gallopers represent value at their current All Aged Stakes odds.
“I have Lucky Hussler shorter than the market at just under $6 and he is now $7,” O’Sullivan said.
“His win there at Moonee Valley was full of merit and he returned quiet a strong number, which was only half a length behind what Chautauqua did in the T.J. Smith and we know that horses from the Darren Weir stable can go ahead a little bit as they go ahead in their preparation.
“The step-up to 1400 metres is favorable for him and a lot will come down to how the track is playing.
“If it is suiting horses closer to the fence then his chances would diminish significantly, but if they are running on down the middle I would be reasonably keen on his chances.
“Wandjina is a good genuine chance in this race and I think that he has found his price at around the $8.
“That Australian Guineas and the form leading up to it was particularly strong and the form leading up to it compared to what the Sydney three-year-olds were doing and I expect those numbers to hold up here.
“Controlling the race in front if it is sorting on pacers there is certainly a good case to be made for him.”
Chautauqua remains on top of 2015 All Aged Stakes betting markets at a quote of $3 from Terravista ($5.50), Lucky Hussler ($7), Shooting To Win ($8) and Wandjina ($8).