Leading form analyst Adam Blencowe has Spillway on top of his 2014 The Metropolitan tips and he is confident that the imported stayer will be a genuine chance in the Caulfield Cup after winning the Group 1 event at Royal Randwick tomorrow.
Spillway started his 2014 Spring Racing Carnival campaign with a narrow second behind Star Rolling in the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on August 16 and produced another solid effort in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on September 13.
The Rail Link entire started the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield on September 20 as a clear favourite, but he was blocked for a run in the final stages of the race and was never a winning chance.
Blencowe told RSN that Spillway has a similar pattern to Tawqeet and Speed Gifted heading into The Metropolitan, who won the race in 2006 and 2009 respectively, and he believes that the five-year-old is great value at his current The Metropolitan odds.
“Obviously the weights here are very compressed and that obviously plays into the hands of those up in the pointy end of things,” Blencowe said.
“We have Spillway, who was obviously pretty stiff in the Naturalism last time, and he is here to do a Tawqeet or a Speed Gifted and come off a good eye-catching run in the Naturalism and win this.
“I think that he is a pretty good chance of doing so.
“There is a bit of depth to it, but I think that Spillway is the most likely winner and I am pretty happy to gamble him at close to 4/1 now.
“We have him marked 2/1 here and I think that he is a pretty good bet.
“I think that Spillway is the one that can go on and be a legitimate Caulfield Cup chance.”
Spillway has remained steady at a quote of $4.40 in The Metropolitan betting market with Ladbrokes since the final field was released on Wednesday, while there has been plenty of support for Chris Waller-trained Junoob, who is into $5 after opening at $7 earlier in the week.
Trainer David Hayes is chasing his second win in The Metropolitan since he took out the 2006 edition of the race with Tawqeet, while premiership winning hoop James McDonald will be riding in the Group 1 event for the first time in his career.