Leading form analyst Dominic Beirne is confident that his 2014 Rosehill Guineas tip Puccini can make his Australian debut with a Group 1 victory at Rosehill Gardens this weekend.
Form expert Dominic Beirne believes that Thunder Fantasy represents good value at his current Rosehill Guineas odds, but believes that Puccini is the horse to beat in the Group 1 event. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia
Puccini has been well backed in 2014 Rosehill Guineas betting markets, after recording impressive wins in the Group 2 Waikato Guineas (2000m), Group 2 Avondale Guineas (2100m) and Group 1 New Zealand Derby (2400m), and Beirne told RSN this morning that he believes the son of Encosta De Lago is the horse to beat in the Group 1 race this weekend.
“I really like Puccini,” Beirne said.
“New Zealanders have done really well in this race for the past three years; we saw Jimmy Choux win the 2011 Rosehill Guineas and Silent Achiever was very unlucky the following year.
“I think that Puccini has the figures that are equal to all those horses and I like the fact that he has had a long and hard campaign and now a month off.
“That is a really good training regime for the 2000 metres.
“I am preferring to go against horses like Dissident that are going up from 1600 metre preparations.
“I fancy Puccini and I think that is a fair enough price.”
While Beirne is confident that Puccini can extend the excellent record that New Zealand-trained horses have in the Rosehill Guineas, he believes that the Anthony Cummings-trained duo of Thunder Fantasy and Surge Ahead represent good value.
Beirne is unsure whether Surge Ahead has the class to record a Group 1 victory over a strong field and rates Thunder Fantasy as the better winning chance, but Cummings said earlier in the week that he feels Surge Ahead is his best chance in the Group 1 event.
“The other two horses that I believe are good value, in my opinion are Anthony’s two horses – Thunder Fantasy and Surge Ahead,” Beirne said.
“Surge Ahead to a lesser extent; he probably does have the figure to win, but this might rate down a bit if they finish in a bunch and it is a classic wet track race where they finish all over the place.
“I do think that Thunder Fantasy is worth a ticket.”
Puccini ($5) and Dissident ($5) are currently battling for favoritism in 2014 Rosehill Guineas betting markets; with Thunder Fantasy ($16) and Surge Ahead ($31) available at double figures odds.
