Leading form analyst Adam Blencowe has Moriarty on top of his 2014 Kingston Town Classic tips, but he believes that Railway Stakes winner Elite Belle represents the value in betting markets for the Group 1 event at Ascot tomorrow.
Elite Belle worked home strongly to record a maiden win at Group 1 level in the Railway Stakes (1600m) at Ascot on November 22, but Moriarty was just as impressive and flashed home late after being settled at the tail of the field to finish third.
Blencowe told RSN that he believes that Moriarty is the horse to beat, but does not want to back him at his current Kingston Town Classic odds of $4 and would rather be on Elite Belle at $7.
“I think that it is a pretty interesting race,” Blencowe said.
“Moriarty is a proven weight-for-age performer and he put down a fairly good marker in the Railway there that he was going to be pretty hard to beat.
“They were betting big odds leading into the Railway, but that has been stripped away now and we are probably looking at rock bottom, but I do think he is the horse they have got to beat.
“You have to respect Elite Belle as well.
“He was obviously terrific behind her there and meets her on slightly better terms, but she is going to be pretty hard to beat as well.
“At the current odds the way they shake out she is the better bet than she is at this stage.”
Three-year-olds have a strong recent record in the Kingston Town Classic and there has been plenty of support it betting markets for the Group 1 event for Rommel and Disposition.
Blencowe said that he was impressed with the performances of both Rommel and Disposition in the Group 2 Western Australian Guineas (1600m) and believes that Disposition is the major danger to Moriarty and Elite Belle.
“It is not a race I am desperately keen on, but I think that form is slightly ahead of the three-year-olds,” Blencowe said.
“The three-year-olds did run pretty good figures on the day and Disposition is similar to Ihtsahymn on bare form and he probably doesn’t have to take too big a leap to get involved here.”
Moriarty ($4) remains a clear favourite in 2014 Kingston Town Classic betting markets from Disposition ($6.50), Elite Belle ($7), Balmont Girl ($7.50) and Rommel ($9).