Boban has been the 2013 Emirates Stakes tip of a number of punters right around Australia but expert form students Dominic Beirne and Ralph Horowitz believe that the four-year-old is well under the odds for the Group 1 event at Flemington tomorrow.
Boban recorded his fourth straight victory in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes (1400m) on Caulfield Cup Day with an eye-catching run down the inside of the track but Beirne told RSN that the performance was not as impressive as it appeared to the naked eye.
Beirne, who successfully picked Fiorente as the Melbourne Cup winner on Tuesday, said that Boban got a dream run up the inside of the track and believes that the Bernardini gelding needs to improve significantly on his previous to best to win the Emirates Stakes this weekend.
“Boban doesn’t compute anything like 5/2 chance on my computer,” Beirne said.
“This is a really deep race.
“Boban was ridden completely dead and riding for luck coming through the inside.
“The inside was a massive bias and there was a huge favor.
“I saw what everybody else saw, he is obviously a promising horse, but he carried the limit in the Epsom, he carried just over the limit in the start before that and here he is with five kilos over the limit.
“I am not carried away with that last start as being some super performance and he has to advance on that to be justified as favourite.”
Horowitz agreed that Boban’s run in the Moonga Stakes was overrated and believes that the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m), which was won by Toydini from Speediness and Sacred Falls, will be the key form race for the Emirates Stakes.
The former journalist has selected both Toydini and Sacred Falls as his 2013 Emirates Stakes tips but admitted there was plenty of winning chances in the Group 1 event.
“That was a super race, it was a super-fast race and you have two horses that really look like they are set for the race,” Horowitz told RSN.
“Toydini and Sacred Falls both raced against each other in the Epsom but Sacred Falls was probably a run away from his best.
“It just looks like he has peaked for the race and Glen Boss over Leigh Innes is a massive bonus.
“Toydini was just super and covered ground on that circle, and you didn’t want to be doing that, and those are the two that I am completely zeroing in on.”
Boban ($3.50) has been the market mover in 2013 Emirates Stakes betting markets; with Sacred Falls ($6) and Toydini ($6.50) on the second and third line of betting respectively.