The 2013 Cox Plate tip of leading form guru Gary Crispe is It’s A Dundeel but the Timeform analyst admits that he believes the betting market has got the prices of the four leading contenders just about right.
Timeform Handicapper Gary Crispe is sticking with It's A Dundeel in the 2013 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Photo by: Steve Hart
Crispe, one of the Australia’s leading form experts for a number of decades, told RSN that he had analysed the 2013 Cox Plate field closely and said he kept coming back to It’s A Dundeel – despite concerns about the fitness of the four-year-old who missed out on a start in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) after bursting a foot abscess.
“I don’t like sitting on the fence but I keep coming back to It’s A Dundeel so I suppose I would stay with the favourite,” Crispe said.
“I think that you have to take on face value what Murray Baker has said and he has given the horse a number of searching gallops and believes that the horse is not far off his top.
“Missing a race is always a worry and that is perhaps why he isn’t as short as he may have been following the scratching of Atlantic Jewel.
“You have to consider that he is close to top form and those odds are about are as short as you can get him given you have to have some doubt in the back of your mind about that last 100 metres and his fitness.
“I think he is probably about the right price in the market.”
Melbourne Cup favourite Fiorente and Darren Weir-trained Puissance De Lune have also been well found in 2013 Cox Plate betting markets and Crispe believes that the pair are now slightly under the odds at their current prices.
“I think that the ones in the market are pretty much right,” Crispe said.
“Fiorente at around the $4.60 mark we can’t get him quiet that short and Puissance De Lune we can’t get him that short either.”
Caulfield Guineas winner Long John has been one of the best backed runners in the past 24 hours and is now into Cox Plate odds of $8.50 after being available at double figures following the scratching of Atlantic Jewel on Tuesday morning.
Crispe argued that it takes a quality three-year-old to win the Cox Plate and does not believe that Long John is up to the level of some of the champion three-year-olds that have previously taken out the Australasian Weight-For-Age Championship.
“The three-year-old has been very well found in the market,” Crispe said.
“Three-year-olds have a reasonable record in this race but Caulfield Guineas winners don’t and he wouldn’t be as good as Surround or Red Anchor.
“When you weigh in those factors he is as short as you would want him to be to have a bet.”
Crispe admitted that he doesn’t like going too wide for major races but said that Chris Waller-trained Foreteller, who is now into odds of $26, is the 2013 Cox Plate tip for punters that are looking for a horse that offers a bit of value.
“You probably have to go wide, which is something I don’t like doing in these big races,” Crispe said.
“Maybe a horse like Foreteller would be some value in the race.
“It will be interesting to see what will happen by the time we get to this race as the market could shift around a bit.”
